Penn State vs. Ohio State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (10/30/21)
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Penn State vs. Ohio State Betting Odds
This isn’t just one of the biggest games on the Big Ten schedule, it’s one of the biggest games of the 2021 college football season.
Ohio State and Penn State come in with a combined 11-3 record while both being ranked. However, Penn State’s loss to Illinois – following nine overtimes as 24.5-point favorites – has them as heavy underdogs entering this matchup.
In fact, the Buckeyes are laying almost 20 points at home on Saturday.
While it’s tempting to take Penn State and the points in this matchup, the offense has been exposed as largely ineffective.
So, is it worth laying the points with Ohio State on Saturday? Or, is there a better angle we could take?
Penn State Nittany Lions Odds
Penn State looks like your typical Big Ten team, but with a twist.
The Nittany Lions play elite defense, allowing just 14.7 points per game and 4.3 yards per play. However, instead of committing to the rush game, the offense has consisted of Sean Clifford to Jahan Dotson deep shots, and nothing else.
That’s worked at times this season. There’s no doubting Dotson’s talent, as he’s recorded 49 receptions and 563 yards this season (11.5 yards per reception).
*Jahan Dotson down there somewhere*
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 23, 2021
But the Penn State offense is incredibly imbalanced, and the Nittany Lions rank just 94th in Offensive Success Rate as a result. A big chunk of the inefficiency can be chalked up to the offensive line, which ranks 117th in Line Yards, but everyone on the offense deserves blame.
Luckily, the defense has led them to a 5-2 record so far this season. But that defense ranks outside the top-40 in Defensive Success Rate, and everything about the Nittany Lions is unsustainable.
Ohio State Buckeyes Odds
The Buckeyes loss to Oregon had the state of Ohio calling for Ryan Day’s head. However, the Buckeyes have turned it around since that fiasco.
Ohio State has won five straight games and covered in four straight. The schedule has been soft, and Penn State will be a large step-up in talent. But, the Buckeyes have been destroying the teams they should destroy, which says something about the team’s talent.
Everything centers around C.J. Stroud and the most talented wide receiver corps in the nation. Stroud has completed 68% of his passes this season for a 22:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but it’s easy when you’re throwing to Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave every week.
https://twitter.com/247Sports/status/1452075865853018121?s=20
In the end, the Buckeyes have scored the most points per game this season (49.3) while ranking second in Offensive Success Rate. Day’s offense can out-gun anyone in the nation.
The question is the defense. More specifically, the rushing defense, which got gashed for 270 yards against Oregon.
However, the Buckeyes have largely rebounded since the fiasco. Ohio State ranks 14th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and 30th in Defensive Success Rate. Michael Penix Jr. and Indiana managed just seven points at home last week, so there’s reason to fear the Buckeye defense.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Ohio State -18.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Apologies to Nittany Lion fans, but this team got exposed against Illinois last week.
The Penn State offense is a mess, and the defense has been overperforming their advanced statistics. Now, they expect to somehow compete against a surging Buckeye team on the road.
Sadly, there’s no chance. This line opened at Ohio State -16.5, but it has since been bet up by sharps.
I expect the line to keep moving, but I wouldn’t be in any rush to get a good number on Ohio State. This has blowout written all over it, and I’m comfortable playing the Buckeyes up to -20.5.
