Penn State Vs. Purdue Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/1/2022)

Starting the season off in week one of College Football, the Penn State Nittany Lions and Purdue Boilermakers will begin their 2022 campaign in an early Big Ten matchup.  These two will be facing off on Thursday, September 1st.  Both are expected to be competing for a claim at a Big Ten title this year, so this game will certainly be important for both parties to get good momentum for the season early on.  Let’s dive into this game’s betting odds, predictions and picks for this week one matchup.

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Penn State enters this game as early favorites at -176 and the spread is currently -3.5 in favor of the Nittany Lions.  Both of their teams are currently just outside of the AP Top 25 preseason rankings.  Penn State has 160 votes while Purdue has 16. With a 7-6 finish last season, the Nittany Lions are hoping for improvements this year that will return them to the dominant team they were a few years ago.  The Purdue Boilermakers showed major improvements last season going 8-5 in the regular season and finishing out with a Music City Bowl win against Tennessee.  They are looking to continue building on that momentum that will have them competing to win the Big Ten West.  

This game will be a home game for Purdue which can definitely play a factor in the outcome as the Boilermaker crowd will certainly be out in full force.  The over/under is currently listed at 54.5 and will definitely be something to keep an eye out for as both of these have pass-heavy offenses.

Penn State vs. Purdue Picks & Predictions

My pick:  Over 54.5 (-110)

I personally can see the outcome going either way in this game.  Penn State and Purdue both come into this year with a lot to prove and are both expected to be very competitive teams in the Big Ten East and West respectively.  Getting off to a hot start is crucial for both to have the type of season they hope for.  Penn State may have the better team overall, but Purdue may have the QB advantage plus playing at home makes me really not want to touch a moneyline or spread bet.  The spread placed at -3.5 is a little narrow for me.  If I could buy some points and get Purdue around either +5 or +6, I may want to go that route.  That being said, I do think this is a game where the over bet is quite enticing.  

Both of these teams suffered running the ball, but both had very good passing offenses and both have veteran QBs.  I’ve already discussed Aidan O’Connell but Sean Clifford is another sixth-year veteran QB that eclipsed 3,000 yards last season and I expect both offenses to have the passing game going strong in this game.  I like their defenses, but do think with it being week one that these offenses with experienced QBs may take less time to get their scoring going.  Penn State hovered around 25 points last year and typically only let up 24 points or less, but I believe they’ll let up more against Purdue and their offense may be able to score around 28 against Purdue.  I like the over in this game and expect this to finish closer around a total of 60.  This will be a good Thursday game to get your College Football betting rust dusted off.

Penn State Vs. Purdue Key Matchups

Aidan O’Connell vs. Penn State Defense

Aidan O’Connell’s ability to get the ball flying through the air will play a big part in Purdue’s chance to pull off an upset.  Last year, he finished second behind C.J. Stroud in the Big Ten All-American race.  O’Connell threw for over 3,700 yards and 28 TDS last season as the Second-Team Big Ten All-American.  Also coming in as a 6th year veteran QB, it shouldn’t take as long for him to get back into the swing of things while it may take longer for the Nittany Lions defense to get their groove going.  

The Penn State defense only allowed more than 24 points twice last season and that was against top-caliber teams in Ohio State and Michigan.  If they want to have a good game to build on, being able to stop a great QB in O’Connell from dicing up their secondary would be a great place to start.