Get Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets player prop picks & odds for the (01/27/24) matchup.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop Picks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets kicks off this Saturday at 5:30pm EST in Denver Colorado as a home game for the Nuggets. The 76ers are currently a +5.5 underdog and +185 on the moneyline while the total is set at 228. Expect Joel Embiid to carry the offensive load with Tyrese Maxey’s injury while Nikola Jokic bounces back with his facilitation, all giving value as player props for this Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets matchup.
Joel Embiid Over 35.5 Points
After their previous meeting against the Denver Nuggets where Joel Embiid dropped 41 points in a 126-121 win, he now finds himself as the favorite to win the MVP award. He has another opportunity to state his case once again, battling against the other MVP front runner in Nikola Jokic.
Moreover, Embiid may get an even higher usage due to the 76ers injuries. As of writing, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are currently listed as questionable. Should one or both sit out, Embiid will have his number called at a higher rate which means more shot attempts towards this over.
Defense hasn’t been a strength for the Denver Nuggets this season as they have dipped to 13th in Defensive Efficiency. This is largely because of the amount of injuries they have sustained throughout the season, and in their last three games their Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage and Opposing True Shooting Percentage numbers have steadily dropped. Expect Embiid to dominate a thin interior and score at will.
Joel Embiid Over 5.5 Assists
While the previously mentioned scoring prop is good with or without Tyrese Maxey, this one is only a play if Maxey is ruled out. If Maxey is unable to give it a go, Embiid’s extra usage also plays towards his ability to generate assists in offensive sets where he can’t escape a double team.
That leads to him getting the ball out of hands, most likely hitting an open shooter due to the lack of opposite side coverage. Philadelphia may be ice cold from three in their last three contests, but Embiid should be able to stretch out Nikola Jokic and give their off-ball cutters higher quality lanes to cut towards the rim. That increases the chance for a finish, as well as racking up an assist for this prop to cash.
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists
A case can be made that Nikola Jokic is already the greatest passing big man in NBA history. It was an oddity in their previous matchup against the 76ers as he only had three assists in their losing effort. That is a severe drop off from his season average, averaging an astonishing nine assists per game.
Nikola Jokić has eyes in the back of his head 👀pic.twitter.com/V2SNqVQfxx
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) January 26, 2024
With Philadelphia’s starting lineup getting decimated due to injuries, including stud defensive stalwart De’Anthony Melton already being ruled out, Jokic’s secondary scorers should have no issue with capitalizing on higher quality scoring opportunities. Jokic is capable of hitting anyone at any spot of the court in the shooter’s pocket, setting up the players around him for a higher chance of knocking down the shot.
One worrisome area for this prop is that the Nuggets are also dealing with injuries. Late Friday both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon were listed as questionable, though both are trending towards playing as they have been upgraded to probable. Jamal Murray is the bigger factor towards this prop cashing, playing as the guard in a two-man game with Jokic. He feeds off of him with or without the ball, rubbing off his shoulder to create separation and either drive towards the rim or stop and pop for an open look.
Tyrese Maxey Under 3.5 Three Pointers Made
This prop is in large part the status of Tyrese Maxey. Should he sit this one out then the prop will be voided, if he plays then it’s a good chance his minutes are restricted as a sizable underdog while not 100% as well. With less minutes comes a higher chance of cashing this as his attempts will be limited.
The Denver Nuggets rank 13th in Opposing Three Point Percentage on the season — holding opposing offenses to just 36.1% — and they have been dominant as of late. In their last three contests, opposing offenses have shot a lowly 32.6% from deep and now get the hobbled 76ers in the midst of a road stretch. Expect tired legs and sloppy shots throughout the contest, giving Denver the chance to successfully smother the perimeter once again.