Get Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors player prop picks & odds for the (01/30/24) matchup.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors Player Prop Picks
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors tips off this Tuesday at 10:00pm EST in San Francisco, CA as a home game for the Warriors. The 76ers are currently a +3.5 underdog and +140 on the moneyline while the total is set at 236.5. Expect Joel Embiid to make a statement upon his return while Steph Curry and Klay Thompson struggle to get the Warriors offense going, all giving value as player props for this Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors matchup.
Joel Embiid Over 37.5 Points
After taking the past few games off with knee soreness, Joel Embiid is poised to make his return in primetime against the Golden State Warriors. As of writing it’s believed he will not have a minutes restriction and will be set for a full game workload. Perfect timing for the former MVP as he is running out of games he can miss before being disqualified from the MVP race per the new rules set this year.
As for how he will do when on the court, Embiid will be in a position to dominate the Warriors once again as Golden State severely lacks interior defense. Draymond Green is one of the best defenders in the league, though he is at a severe size disadvantage and is better off playing help side defense.
That gives Embiid plenty of high-quality scoring opportunities when in good position on the block. His size is enough to power through Draymond’s defensive capabilities as well as the other forwards Golden State trots out. Embiid also has formed into a knock down free throw shooter by shooting 88.3% from the charity stripe, meaning points will rarely be lost in the sets that he gets fouled on.
Joel Embiid Over 5.5 Assists
With Tyrese Maxey getting ruled out, Joel Embiid should see a heavier usage. While that plays into his previously mentioned scoring prop, it should also give an uptick for potential assists as a ball dominant big man. Embiid currently averages just a tad over this prop, averaging 5.8 assists per game.
Joel Embiid has set the Philadelphia 76ers franchise record for points in a single game (70) pic.twitter.com/hcn1NAzGdZ
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) January 23, 2024
He may have a massive size advantage when on the block but will see plenty of double teams from the help side. Especially if Draymond is the off-ball defender, being a potential issue for Embiid when he puts the ball on the ground. That will force the ball out of Embiid’s hands to continue on the possession, potentially giving him an assist with an open shooter in the gap of coverage.
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Threes Made
It’s been a rollercoaster of a year for Klay Thompson as he continues to struggle since returning from injury. It has gotten so bad to the point that people are calling for him to come off the bench, halting their offensive possessions with poor shot selections and killing any momentum that they build.
He now faces a tough test against the Philadelphia 76ers as they excel at defending the perimeter. Per TeamRankings, the 76ers rank first in Opposing Three Point Completion by holding opposing offenses to just 34.1%. They have dipped in their past few games, crashing down to an astonishing 39.8% in their last three contests. With the return of Embiid, the 76ers can sell back out in coverage knowing Embiid is anchoring the paint.
This prop is also a good example of why to always line shop. The odds on under 3.5 wildly vary as some books have the under as a favorite while other books still have it listed as low as +110. The difference between -120 and +110 is massive and shows why it’s crucial to have as many books as you can get at your disposal in order to get the best available number for long term success.
Steph Curry Under 28.5 Points
Like Klay Thompson, Steph Curry will also struggle with generating high quality three-point opportunities against the best perimeter defense in the league. The issue is that Curry’s volume still threatens the under to his three-point prop, as well as being a far better shooter when smothered than Klay Thompson.
That turns my attention towards his under on points instead as his drives to the rim should also come with minimal success. Especially if Embiid is able to give it a go, anchoring the paint and being in position to smother Curry’s drives to the rim. That may leave Curry to rely more on his mid-range, not exactly a recipe for consistent success even for the best shooter in NBA history.