Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview (1/5/19): Matchup Analysis, Depth Charts, Daily Fantasy
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Seattle will head back to Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round, where they won back in Week 12, 17-9. It was a fairly even game, but Rashaad Penny was the difference maker going for 129 yards and a touchdown. Zach Ertz went for a 12-91-1 line. Now both teams are going through injuries on the offensive side. The Seahawks were forced to sign Marshawn Lynch with Penny and Chris Carson suffering season ending injuries. As for the Eagles, they are without most of their wide receivers, and Ertz missed Week 17 with a rib injury. Doug Pederson has done an excellent job the last few weeks structuring his offense around what he has. Miles Sanders has been a crucial name down the stretch, which Seattle will need to game plan for. Vegas is expecting a higher scoring game than the Week 12 matchup, and Seattle are slight favorites coming into Philadelphia with the better 11-5 record. The Eagles won the last two games to clinch the division, while the Seahawks lost the last two games to fail to clinch the NFC West. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the Seattle Seahawks At Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, January 5th,
Time: 4:40 ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Seattle Seahawks: Mychal Kendricks (O), Quandre Diggs (P),
Philadelphia Eagles: Brandon Brooks (O), Zach Ertz (Q), Lane Johnson (Q), Jalen Mills (Q)
Seattle Seahawks Analysis
Seattle and Philadelphia are fairly even in most team stats. Seattle had an advantage on the ground, especially given how their team was built to play. That might turn in the post season with Carson and Penny out. Travis Homer did not have a bad debut for Seattle, rushing for 62 yards on ten carries against San Francisco. Lynch came in with 12 carries for 34 yards and a touchdown. Russell Wilson ended up throwing 40 times in what was a come from behind game for the Seahawks. Philadelphia has a better run defense than the 49ers, ranking 4th in DVOA against the run, and are allowing 4.1 yards per carry. The smart move here for Seattle is still to throw through the air. The Eagles rank 17th in DVOA against the pass, and have been exploitable through the air. However the Eagles defense has been better at home against the pass, allowing 5.8 yards per attempt, compared to 7.6 on the road.
The Seahawks defense ranks 22nd in points allowed this season (24.9) However, the Eagles offense isn’t exactly high flying, averaging just 5.2 yards per play. Seattle rushed at a 46% clip this season, throwing just 54% of the time. This is quite the opposite from the Eagles, especially in where you should be attacking this defense. Seattle is also going to need to improve third down conversions. Replacing the rushing game is going to be a tough ask, Chris Carson was one of the top backs this season, and Rashaad Penny found his groove over the last few weeks. The passing game was a bit pedestrian over the last few weeks. Tyler Lockett was getting over a nasty flu, and DK Metcalf had some up and down target games. Philadelphia didn’t allow much production to tight ends this season, but Jacob Hollister has been a consistent target for Wilson in the passing game over the second half of the season.
Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
Philadelphia Eagles Analysis
Philadelphia didn’t exactly have a daunting schedule down the stretch where they won four games to clinch the division. Despite having the poorer record they will nap a home game. The defense is going to be the x factor for me this week, and we never really know which defense shows up. They allowed 37 to Miami and 27 to Washington, then held the Cowboys to just nine points. Overall the Philadelphia defense has been slightly better than Seattle. They have allowed just 5.5 yards per play, and opposing teams convert on third down just 34% of the time. Seattle is already not a very good third down team. Red zone scoring is going to be another key factor this week. Philadelphia sand Seattle both ranked inside the top ten in red zone scoring percentages, and for touchdowns only.
Carson Wentz gets a lot of flack for his play this season, and while he has been poor at taking care of the football, Wentz led this team down the stretch. He finished for over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. He had just seven interceptions, but lost the ball seven times via a fumble. Over the final five weeks of the season, new names had to step up their play. Greg Ward stepped into a larger role, and saw 33 targets in that five game span. He posted a 22-214-1 line. The tight ends saw a bulk of the work in the passing game. Over the last four games, Ertz has seen 35 targets, and would be a big loss if he can’t suit up. Dallas Goedert has seen 41 targets over the last five games. Both have been strong in production, and Seattle has been a bottom five team against tight ends. We can chalk up Miles Sanders workload due to Jordan Howard being out lately. However with his return, Sanders should own the higher end of the running back split here. He produced over 400 yards of offense in the last five weeks, and four touchdowns. Expect Doug Pederson to continue to creatively use him, and in the passing game.
Philadelphia Eagles Depth Chart
Betting Pick: Under 46 Total Points
Early money is leaning towards Seattle and the over here. Neither team were great ATS this season, leaning below 50%. Overall both of these teams are very similar. They are battling injuries, have exploitable weaknesses in the pass defense, and have strong run defenses. Seattle has won three straight against Philadelphia, averaging 22.3 points per game and holding the Eagles to 11.3 points per game. Turnovers were brutal for Philadelphia over the three games, averaging three a game. The Seahawks were a great road team this year going 7-1 and 5-2-1 ATS. Both teams finished about .500 when it came to the over/under. Given how both sides are coming in, my comfort level for the spread is close to none. Where I have some confidence is the under here. Sitting at 46, I see another tight low scoring game, especially with the offenses in the shape they are in coming in.
Daily Fantasy: Exploitable Matchups On Both Sides
While this wasn’t a friendly DFS game in their first meeting, there are matchups to take advantage of. Both were middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and ranked 14th and 17th in DVOA. Both pass defenses have struggled in their own ways. Tight ends have had plenty of success against Seattle this season. They have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. They were one of three teams to allow over 1,000 receiving yards to the position as well. Zach Ertz thrived in the first game, in volume and in production. However his injury situation is going to be something to monitor. Dallas Goedert would see a tick up in targets, and even if Ertz plays, Goedert has been a key piece on the offense. He finished TE10 on the season, and posted a 58-607-5 line. With the Eagles pass catching options limited, I would expect the tight ends to continue to see a ton of volume. Over the last five games, Miles Sanders averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game, and ranked as RB9 in that span. The rookie produced when called upon, and while most of that was with Jordan Howard out, his role in the receiving game is going to be crucial as well. Sanders isn’t cheap anymore on either site, but there is a steep drop off in production after him.
As for Seattle, the best matchup is their wide receivers against this secondary. Philadelphia allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Now Philadelphia tightened up on defense down the stretch and in that Week 12 game, so it isn’t a sure bet. However, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have been two of the better wideouts this season, and if the ground game continues to struggle, they will have to attack through the air. Lockett averaged 6.9 targets per game this season, and saw at least seven over the past three weeks with two receiving touchdowns. Metcalf is touchdown dependent, and targets were volatile down the stretch, but he averaged 6.3 per game this season. Given the status of the running game in Seattle, I am avoiding here. Russell Wilson is a solid DFS quarterback, but upside was capped in the second half of the season. I don’t quite believe we will see a shootout style game here, which is the issue in terms of upside. However on Wild Card weekend, we are looking three lower scoring totals.