Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football (11/20/23)
The Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) play host to the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) in a Super Bowl LVII rematch on Monday Night Football (11/20/23). The Chiefs are small favorites at -2.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 45.5 points. This article recommends an Eagles vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay featuring D’Andre Swift, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks
This game should be one of the highlights of the entire NFL regular season. Not only is it a Super Bowl rematch, but the Eagles and Chiefs are also the current favorites to return to the Super Bowl this season. It’s the first time in NFL history that a Super Bowl rematch features two teams in first place in their respective conferences.
With both teams coming off their bye week, they should also both be well-rested and fully prepared to deliver their best performance of the season. As we explained in our matchup preview, we expect the Eagles to lean heavily on the running game while the Chiefs will exploit the Eagles’ weak passing defense through the air. Those expectations informed our picks in this Eagles vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay.
We built our SGP on DraftKings, but we encourage you to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers. Let’s get to it.
D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rushing attempts (-105)
Let’s start by tailing our favorite player prop bet from our article on the best Eagles vs. Chiefs player prop bets. Swift has at least 14 carries in seven of his last eight games and he is averaging just under 17 carries per game over that span. The Chiefs’ defense funnels opposing offenses toward the run – they have one of the best passing defenses in the league (third in DVOA and EPA) but a below-average run defense (20th in DVOA, 30th in EPA).
We expect the Eagles’ game plan to center on establishing the run and controlling the ball with their rushing attack, which is the formula the Broncos used to beat the Chiefs a few weeks ago. While they have struggled to run the ball efficiently over their last four games (3.1 yards per carry), this game is a perfect opportunity for them to get the ground game back on track.
The weather forecast could also lead to a heavier rushing volume in this game, as the expected rain and wind could make it more difficult to throw the ball down the field. While we can’t count on that, we certainly like that it’s a possibility, and it gives us even more confidence in an already appealing pick.
Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts (+110)
We are doubling down on another player prop bet we covered in our player props article for this game. Mahomes is averaging career highs in both rushing attempts (4.7) and rushing yards (28.7) per game this season. He has at least six rushing attempts in five of his nine games this season, and also ran the ball six times against the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
The Eagles’ defense has great numbers against running QBs this season, which could be contributing to the +110 odds on this pick. However, they have not faced any truly dangerous mobile QBs this season. The QBs they have faced are: Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Sam Howell (twice), Matthew Stafford, Zach Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott. Howell and Prescott are the best running threats of that bunch, and they both rushed six times against the Eagles (Howell did it once in his two games against them).
Mahomes is a much better runner than any of those QBs, especially this season. He is also elite at sensing pressure and finding ways to escape from the pocket, and we expect the Eagles to be able to get pressure on him in this game. That is going to create opportunities for him to rack up carries on scrambles and will lead to him getting at least five rushing attempts in this game.
Our full SGP odds sit at +420 after these first two legs, and while we love those odds on a two-leg parlay, let’s look for a third bet to make things even more interesting (and more profitable!)
Travis Kelce over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
We want to get a piece of the Chiefs’ passing offense in this parlay, as we expect it to be a high-volume passing day for Mahomes. The Eagles have the best run defense in the league (first in yards allowed, second in DVOA) and one of the worst passing defenses (28th in yards, 22nd in DVOA). The Chiefs are already one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, calling passes on 60.9% of plays (sixth most) and averaging the sixth most passing attempts at 37.8 per game. They have every reason to be even more pass-heavy in this game.
Our preferred way to get some action on the Chiefs’ passing offense would have been to take the over on Mahomes’ passing attempts. However that bet is not available at DraftKings at the time of this writing, so let’s focus instead on his top pass catcher.
The weakest part of the Eagles’ defense is their passing coverage over the middle of the field. They have struggled against both tight ends and slot receivers this season, and several tight ends have had excellent games against them. They are allowing a 78.2% completion rate against tight ends (43 catches on 55 targets) and have allowed 5 touchdowns, tied for third most in the league.
Kelce had six catches for 81 yards against the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and we expect him to put up even bigger numbers this week. While it has been a slightly down season for Kelce – he has only surpassed 70 receiving yards twice this season – this game is a perfect opportunity for him to get back on track.
The one caveat we will add is to wait until closer gametime before placing this bet to evaluate the potential impact the weather could have on this game. If it looks bad, we would probably play it a bit safer and just stick with the two-leg parlay mentioned above.
Same Game Parlay Card For Eagles vs. Chiefs
- D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rushing attempts (-105)
- Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts (+110)
- Travis Kelce over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
Full SGP odds: +950 ($10 pays out $105)