Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/23)
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks
The highly anticipated Super Bowl LVII rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs is on Monday Night Football this week. The Chiefs are favored in the game at -2.5 against the spread, and it’s expected to be a relatively high-scoring affair with an over/under at 45.5. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Eagles vs. Chiefs player prop bets.
D’Andre Swift over 13.5 rushing attempts (-105 at BetMGM)
As we noted in our matchup preview, we expect the Eagles to lean heavily on the running game based on the matchup against the Chiefs’ defense, which is much better against the pass than it is against the run. The Chiefs are 20th in DVOA and 30th in EPA against the run, but they are third in both categories against the pass. They are also allowing the sixth-most yards per carry at 4.5.
After inexplicably getting only one carry in the first week of the season, D’Andre Swift has at least 14 carries in seven out of eight games since then. The one game he didn’t hit that mark happened to be the Eagles’ one loss this season in Week 6 against the Jets. We don’t think that’s a coincidence, and the Eagles know how important it is to get Swift involved in their offense. The matchup with the Chiefs’ defense only makes that more important this week.
Another factor supporting a heavy rushing volume is the weather forecast. This game is expected to be negatively affected by wind and rain, which could make it difficult for both teams to be aggressive throwing the ball down the field. That isn’t a huge factor, as weather is of course unpredictable and it would have to be really bad to have a significant impact on the passing game, but it definitely helps make this an even more appealing prop bet.
It’s also worth noting here that we prefer this bet over the rushing yards for Swift, which is set at 58.5 yards. Swift has cleared that number in just four of his nine games this season, and just one of his last four. The over on his rushing attempts also comes with slightly better odds at -105.
Given how consistently Swift has eclipsed this number this season, this prop line is simply too low, especially at those odds. Pounce on this opportunity while it’s still available.
Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rushing attempts (+124 at DraftKings)
We love the last pick so much, why not pick another over on rushing attempts, this time at plus odds?
Mahomes has been very active and effective with his legs this season. He is averaging career highs in both rushing attempts (4.7) and rushing yards (28.7) per game. (Technically he averaged 7.0 attempts per game as a rookie, but that was only one game.) He has gone over 4.5 rushing attempts in five of his nine games and has at least six attempts in all five of those games. He also had six rushing attempts against the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Our biggest hesitation with this pick is that the Eagles have been the best in the league against running QBs this season. They have faced the second-fewest attempts (2.56) and yards (10.4) per game this season.
That is partly attributable to their dominant defensive line and run defense, which does a good job setting the edge and preventing QBs from escaping the pocket. However, it’s also at least partly attributable to their schedule. They have not faced any true mobile quarterbacks. The most mobile QBs they have faced are Sam Howell and Dak Prescott. It just so happens that both Howell and Prescott had six carries against them (Howell did it once in two games).
Mahomes is one of the best QBs in the league at sensing pressure and making Houdini-like escapes from the pocket. We expect him to be under plenty of pressure from the Eagles’ elite pass rush, which will create enough opportunities for him to reach at least five rushing attempts in this game.
Josh Sweat over 0.25 sacks (+100 at DraftKings)
Speaking of the Eagles getting pressure, let’s close this out by picking an Eagles’ edge rusher to get at least 0.25 sacks on Mahomes. It was a tough choice between Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat, who have 7.5 and 6.5 sacks this season, respectively. We like both picks so decided just to pick the one getting the plus odds.
Sweat has at least 0.5 sacks in six of his nine games this season and three of his last four. He is 12th in the league among edge rushers in ESPN‘s pass rush win rate.
The Chiefs’ starting offensive tackles – LT Donovan Smith and RT Jawaan Taylor – have both struggled at times this season. They are both rated outside the top 40 OTs in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus. Sweat will line up primarily over Smith, but the Eagles have moved him around more this season, and he got a game-clinching sack against the Cowboys by lining up over the RT.
There is also a revenge factor at play here. After nearly breaking the record for total sacks by a team last season, the Eagles had no sacks in the Super Bowl, which was attributed partly to the slippery field conditions. The Chiefs’ offensive line still flaunted that fact at their parade.
The #Chiefs starting offensive line of Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith and Andrew Wylie held Philadelphia to zero sacks in the Super Bowl.
They dressed accordingly today for the Super Bowl parade. pic.twitter.com/0FxrD0xmMX
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 15, 2023
The Eagles absolutely noticed this and they will absolutely use it as motivation to get after Mahomes this week.
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