Get Eagles vs. Rams player prop picks & odds for the (10/8/23) matchup
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Eagles vs. Rams Player Prop Picks
The Los Angeles Rams (2-2) host the Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) this Sunday (10/8/23) in week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. This game has the second-highest over/under total on the week 5 slate, and a high-scoring game means plenty of players should be hitting the over on their player prop bets.
This article analyzes the betting odds on player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Eagles vs. Rams player prop bets.
Matthew Stafford 300+ alt passing yards (+194 at FanDuel)
If you haven’t heard, Cooper Kupp is officially back, and that is great news for Matthew Stafford and terrible news for the Philadelphia Eagles. Stafford is already 2nd in the league in passing yards at 307.6 per game even without Kupp, thanks partly to rookie sensation Puka Nacua. Now he gets Kupp back to join a surprisingly dangerous group of pass catchers that also includes speedy WR Tutu Atwell and sure-handed TE Tyler Higbee.
The Eagles are allowing the 6th-most passing yards per game at 260.8 and they are particularly vulnerable in the slot after losing nickel CB Avonte Maddox. They also lost backup slot CB Zech McPhearson during the preseason, and the next man up, undrafted 2nd year CB Mario Goodrich, could barely get on the field and was inactive last week despite the Eagles’ lack of depth at the position.
The Eagles have been sliding James Bradberry inside in nickel packages with undrafted 2nd-year CB Josh Jobe on the outside. Bradberry is not a natural fit in the slot, and Jobe is a big downgrade from Bradberry outside, but that has been the Eagles’ best option since Maddox went down. They signed veteran CB Bradley Roby this week, and he may get some snaps in the slot this week, but his snap count and effectiveness is likely to be limited.
With the Eagles’ struggles to defend the pass, particularly in the slot where Kupp likes to operate, we want to get a piece of the Rams’ passing attack this week. Betting the over on Stafford’s passing yards is the best way to do that, especially considering the target distribution is unpredictable with the addition of Kupp to the receiving corps.
Stafford has thrown for at least 269 passing yards in all 4 games so far this season, and over 300 yards in 3 of them. The Eagles have also allowed 3 of the 4 opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced to pass for at least 290 yards, and they haven’t exactly been the most impressive quarterbacks (Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Sam Howell). Stafford is by far the best quarterback they have faced so far this season.
When you also consider that the Eagles’ defense is 2nd in the league against the run, this matchup sets up as a huge passing day for Stafford. The Eagles are also likely to score plenty of points against the Rams’ defense, which means Stafford is going to have to throw a lot to keep up.
Stafford’s regular passing yards prop line is at 276.5 at most sportsbooks, but as of this writing you can get it at 269.5 at FanDuel. However, given how much we like this pick, we are making a more aggressive play with the 300+ alt passing yards at a juicy +194 odds.
Tyler Higbee over 35.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
It might be risky to bet on any player prop bets on Rams pass catchers in this game, simply because we don’t know how involved Kupp will be in his first game back and how that will impact the target distribution for guys like Nacua and Atwell. One guy we do feel good about regardless of Kupp’s impact is Tyler Higbee.
The Eagles have historically struggled to defend tight ends because their organizational philosophy deprioritizes the linebacker and safety positions – the two positions that most frequently match up with tight ends in coverage. That has continued to be the case this season, as they have allowed the 6th most receptions and yards to tight ends so far this season. Three of the four tight ends the Eagles have faced this season have had at least 40 receiving yards.
Higbee is averaging 49 receiving yards per game this season, which is the 4th-most among tight ends. Even last year when Stafford and the Rams’ offense was terrible, he still averaged 36.5 yards per game, which is more than this prop line. It’s worth noting that this line is only available at FanDuel as of this writing, and other books have it at 38.5.
If this game plays out as expected with the Rams being heavily reliant on the passing offense, then Higbee should have no problem getting the volume he needs to clear 35.5 receiving yards.
Jalen Carter over 0.25 sacks (+150 at FanDuel)
Another consequence of the expected heavy passing day for Stafford is that there will be plenty of opportunities for the Eagles’ elite defensive line to rush the passer, so let’s get some action on sensational rookie Jalen Carter to notch at least half a sack in this game with attractive +150 odds.
Carter has been phenomenal for the Eagles in his first 4 career games. According to Pro Football Focus, he is 2nd among defensive tackles with 20 pressures, trailing only Aaron Donald. He has translated those pressures to 2 sacks already. He is also 3rd among defensive tackles in ESPN’s pass rush win rate.
Carter should see a higher share of snaps in this game with veteran DT Fletcher Cox already ruled out. Cox leads all Eagles defensive linemen with a 70% snap share this season, and Carter is second among defensive tackles at 47.5%. With the higher volume comes even more opportunities to notch at least half a sack in this game.
The Rams have done a good job so far this season of protecting Stafford, who has been sacked just 9 times through 4 games. Six of those sacks came in one game (week 3 at Bengals), when LT Alaric Jackson got injured and was replaced by Zach Thomas, who simply got destroyed. Jackson is questionable for this game but is expected to play and will be backed up by rookie Warren McClendon Jr. instead of Thomas, according to Rams coach Sean McVay.
While Jackson will not be the guy blocking Carter, his injury is important simply because it affects the overall continuity of the offensive line if he is not 100%. More relevant for the Carter prop bet is that starting RG Joe Noteboom has already been ruled out for this game and will be replaced by Kevin Dotson, a solid enough backup but a backup nonetheless.