Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds, Depth Charts (1/7/24)

The New York Giants (5-11) host their NFC East division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) this Sunday (01/07/24) at 4:25 p.m. in the final week of the 2023-24 NFL regular season. Betting odds have the Eagles as the favorites at -4.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 42 total points.

This article provides Eagles vs. Giants analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why the best bet in this matchup is the under.

Eagles vs. Giants Prediction & Best Bet

The Philadelphia Eagles are in freefall after an embarrassing home loss to the Arizona Cardinals last week. The Cardinals did what the Giants could not do two weeks ago – complete a second-half comeback after trailing by double digits at halftime. They did it by scoring touchdowns on all four of their drives in the second half as the Eagles’ defense could do absolutely nothing to stop them.

That outcome last week sets up an interesting scenario in this game. The overwhelming likelihood is that the Eagles will now end up as the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. They cannot fall any lower than that, and they would need the Cowboys to lose to the Commanders as 13-point favorites in order to win the NFC East with a win over the Giants.

Since it’s still technically possible for the Eagles to win the division and earn at least one home playoff game, they are expected to play their normal starters early in the game. That is what the early reporting suggests they will do. However, they will also be scoreboard-watching the Dallas game, and if the Cowboys have a significant lead in the second half of that game, then the Eagles could pull their starters at some point in this game.

That makes it tricky to handicap this matchup. On the Giants’ side, they only have draft positioning to consider. They are currently slated for the 5th overall pick, and that could be as high as the 2nd pick or as low as the 7th pick depending on the outcomes of week 18 games. It’s unlikely that would impact their motivation (or lack thereof) to compete in this game, so we assume they will play their normal starters for most of the game.

The other factor complicating any betting picks in this game is the weather. The current forecast looks like this game could be played in heavy snow and 25+ mph winds. That will certainly impact the game itself as well as the Eagles’ decision of how much to play their starters, especially considering the field conditions at MetLife Stadium are notorious for causing player injuries even under ideal weather conditions.

Given all the uncertainty surrounding this game, we are staying away from any picks against the spread. If we were making a pick, we would take the Giants with the points, since the Eagles have looked absolutely terrible even when their starters have played normal snap counts.

Instead, we like the under as the best bet in this game. That line is trending down, as we discuss below, and could get even lower as kickoff gets closer, so we are jumping on it at the current number of 42. A line of 42 in a potential snow game with the possibility of backups playing the second half is just way too high.

We would not bet that aggressively, as crazy things can happen in a snow game, and it’s possible that we would flip our pick to the over depending on how much lower it gets. But based on the current odds, under 42 is the best bet in this game.

Eagles vs. Giants Prediction & Best Bet: Eagles win 17-13 | Best Bet: Under 42

Eagles vs. Giants Betting Odds

The spread in this game is moving in the Giants’ direction after opening as high as Eagles -6, as it now sits at -5 or -5.5 depending on the sportsbook.

The over/under is trending aggressively downward, likely as a result of the expected weather issues. The total opened as high as 46.5 at DraftKings and has been as low as 41 at multiple books, with the current odds sitting at 42 or 42.5 at different books.

The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 24-18.

Eagles vs. Giants Key Injuries

The Eagles have a handful of defensive starters whose status is worth monitoring. LB Zach Cunningham and CB Darius Slay have both missed multiple games and could return this week, while slot CB Avonte Maddox, DT Jordan Davis and edge rusher Haason Reddick are also on the injury report. On offense, starting WR DeVonta Smith suffered a “mild” ankle sprain last week and missed Wednesday’s practice, but he is still expected to be available for this game.

For the Giants, CB Deonte Banks and S Jason Pinnock are both defensive starters at risk of missing this game. On offense, C John Michael-Schmitz is worth monitoring, while QB Tyrod Taylor was limited at practice this week but is expected to start.

Eagles vs. Giants Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Eagles vs. Giants below.

Saquon Barkley vs. Eagles’ run defense

Even under normal game conditions, this would be one of the most important matchups in this game. But if this ends up being a snow game as expected, then both teams should be deploying a heavy use of the ground game, and this matchup becomes even more important.

The Eagles’ run defense has been absolutely brutal recently. They had the best run defense in the league for the first half of the season, but they have regressed dramatically since their bye week. Over their last seven games they are 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in success rate. They are allowing over 150 rushing yards per game over that span, including a season-high 221 yards on the ground against the Cardinals last week.

Barkley had a solid yet unspectacular game against the Eagles on Christmas Day, finishing with 80 rushing yards on 23 carries (3.48 yards per attempt). The Giants will need a better game than that if they want to end their season with a victory.

Eagles’ run game vs. Giants’ run defense

Continuing with our expectation of the rushing attacks being important for both teams in this game, let’s cover the other side of this matchup.

The Giants’ defense has been better against the pass (19th in DVOA, 18th in EPA) than they have been against the run (29th in DVOA and 28th in EPA). They have allowed the 4th most rushing yards per game (132.4) and the 2nd most yards per carry (4.7).

The Eagles’ run game has been effective but inconsistent this season. While their numbers show a balanced offense with a good rushing attack, there have been many situations this season in which they have seemingly and inexplicably abandoned the run, leading to “run the ball” chants at their recent home games.

Perhaps the Eagles’ fans will get what they’ve been asking for this week, even if it’s only because of the weather and too little too late. D’Andre Swift was very good against the Giants two weeks ago, finishing with 20 carries for 92 yards (4.6 average). If the Eagles pull their starters, then backups like Marcus Mariota and Boston Scott should be able to find success in the ground game as well.

Eagles Depth Chart

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB1: D’Andre Swift
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell
LWR: A.J. Brown
RWR: Quez Watkins
SWR: Olamide Zaccheaus
TE1: Dallas Goedert

Giants Depth Chart

QB: Tyrod Taylor
RB1: Saquon Barkley
RB2: Matt Breida
LWR: Jalin Hyatt
RWR: Darius Slayton
SWR: Wan’Dale Robinson
TE1: Darren Waller

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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