Get Eagles vs. Buccaneers player prop picks & odds for their (1/15/24) matchup
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) host the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) on Monday Night Football (1/15/24) in the NFC’s 4 vs. 5 matchup on Super Wild Card Weekend. Betting odds favor the Eagles as -3 favorites against the spread while the over/under is set at 43.5 total points. Both starting QBs are banged up entering this game but are expected to play, which adds an interesting wrinkle to betting on player props in this game.
This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Eagles vs. Buccaneers player prop bets.
Rachaad White over 23.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Rachaad White was quietly one of the most productive running backs in the league this season, finishing the year with the 4th-most yards from scrimmage among running backs (and 8th most overall). He is at his best in the passing game, where he had the 3rd most receiving yards (32.3 per game) and the 4th most receptions (3.8) among RBs.
This game should be a good matchup for White against an Eagles defense that is struggling in pretty much every aspect right now. Over their last six games they are 31st in points allowed (30.3 per game), 31st in defensive EPA and 30th in success rate. While defending pass-catching RBs has not been a particularly big problem for them, they did just give up a 46-yard reception to Saquon Barkley last week on a play where the defense couldn’t even get lined up right. Just watch the confusion of their linebackers when Barkley goes in motion.
— Jimmy Kempski (@jimmy_kemp51810) January 12, 2024
That play is emblematic of just how much of a mess this defense is right now, and the Bucs should be able to exploit them. With Baker Mayfield banged up and some bad weather possible for this game, we expect the Bucs to lean heavily on White as both a runner and as a receiver. If the rain or Baker’s health makes it difficult to throw the ball downfield, that will only make it more likely for White to rack up some catches on screens, swing passes and dump offs.
White has at least 24 receiving yards in four of his last five games and in 11 of his 17 games overall this season, including in Week 3 against the Eagles (when they were playing much better defense). He also has gone over his receiving yards prop line in five of his last six games and in 12 games overall this season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have yielded at least 24 receiving yards to an opposing RB in five of their last seven games.
The matchup, the weather and the recent production combine to make a strong case for the over on White’s receiving yards as the best player prop bet in this game.
Baker Mayfield under 10.5 rushing yards (-115 at Caesars)
Speaking of Mayfield being banged up, we don’t expect him to be trying to run the ball much in this game for several reasons. The first and obvious reason is the injuries. Not only will he be looking to protect himself as he deals with rib and ankle injuries, but they also could limit his mobility.
The second and less obvious reason is that he might not need to run much. The Eagles’ pass rush has been completely absent for weeks and it’s unlikely they’re going to force Mayfield to escape the pocket and create opportunities for him to pick up yards with his legs. Their defensive scheme (and general ineffectiveness) will also make it easier for Mayfield to get rid of the ball quickly, so he will not be forced to scramble.
Mayfield can be effective with his legs when healthy, but he is simply not healthy right now, and he has not done much on the ground over the last month of the season. He had seven games with 10+ rushing yards in the first 12 weeks of the season, but none since then. He is averaging just 1.7 rushing yards per game over his last six games.
The Eagles can be vulnerable against QBs on the ground. They have allowed at least 11 rushing yards to the opposing QB in seven of their last nine games, including 38 and 24 yards, respectively, against Tyrod Taylor and Kyler Murray in their last two games. But Mayfield is not nearly the runner that those guys are, especially given his health. He had only two rushing yards against the Eagles back in Week 3.
Cade Otton over 21.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
It is generally a good strategy to bet on tight ends performing well against the Eagles’ defense, which has historically deprioritized the linebacker and safety positions – the two positions most often responsible for covering tight ends. This year is no different, as the Eagles are both weak and banged up at both positions this season. They have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards (51.8 per game) and the 10th-most receptions (5.24) to opposing tight ends this season.
Cade Otton is an above-average tight end with a defined role in the Buccaneers’ offense. He had an 11.8% target share this season and was 4th on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, averaging 2.8 catches and 26.8 yards per game. Those are not impressive numbers by any means, but they are more than good enough to provide some confidence in Otton at least hitting his averages in a good matchup.
The Eagles have allowed at least 22 receiving yards to a tight end in nine of their last 10 games and in 13 games overall this season. Otton also could benefit if the expected rain in this game effects the passing attack, as the short and intermediate throws to Otton over the middle will be more available in those conditions than deep passes.
That all makes Otton a solid target for a player prop bet.