Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds
Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Injury Report
Philadelphia Eagles: OG Landon Dickerson (thumb) Q, OT Lane Johnson (knee) Q, RB Miles Sanders (hand) Q, OT Andre Dillard (knee) Q, DE Josh Sweat (illness) Q
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Mike Evans (hamstring) Q, OLB Shaquil Barrett (knee – ACL + MCL) Q, WR Breshad Perriman (hip) Q, C Ryan Jensen (shoulder) Q, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring) Q, OLB Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder) Q, CB Jamel Dean (hamstring) Q, RB Ronald Jones (ankle) D
Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
Jalen Hurts has won me over as the season has gone on, and I think he can legitimately be the long-term answer for Philly at quarterback. He’ll never be near the league lead in passing yards or touchdowns, but his dynamic rushing ability and awesome leadership traits are the reasons the Eagles have turned their season around. First-year head coach Nick Sirriani has made a more significant commitment to the run game as the season has gone on. The Eagles have been victorious on the ground regardless of whether Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, or Kenneth Gainwell is in the backfield. The Eagles rank third in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA. Tampa has a top-notch run defense, but they are dealing with some injuries in the front seven that could limit that aspect of their game this week. When the Eagles look to move the ball through the air, DeVonta Smith has proven worthy of the first-round selection the team spent on him. His chemistry with Hurts has allowed him to take advantage of his elite route-running and change of direction abilities to produce significant numbers.
The Eagles don’t have an excellent defense, and they rank just 25th in defensive DVOA. Their pass defense slipped as the year went on, and they allowed the highest pass completion rate in the NFL at 69.4%. The run defense was much better, however, allowing just 4.0 YPC, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. The Buccaneers averaged just 3.3 YPC against the Eagles earlier this year, which was a significant reason they could not put the game away until late. Leonard Fournette was much healthier at that time. His return this week from injury, along with the likely absence of Ronald Jones, puts the Tampa backfield in a precarious position. The big matchup to watch here is Mike Evans, Tom Brady’s top wideout, especially without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, against Darius Slay, who has regained his All-Pro form this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds
Tom Brady likely will not win the MVP over Aaron Rodgers, but he deserves a ton of credit for what he has accomplished this year. At 44 years old, Brady led the NFL with 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdowns this year. His QBR of 68.5 came just behind Aaron Rodgers in second place, and his EPA of 118.5 came only behind Justin Herbert. However, this will be a massive test the rest of the way. Chris Godwin is out with a torn ACL for the year, and Antonio Brown is no longer with the team after a wild sequence of events led to his release. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski will be heavily leaned upon. The onus will be on unheralded receivers like Breshad Perriman, Tyler Johnson, Scott Miller, and Cyril Grayson to step up. The return of Leonard Fournette is massive, and we all remember how good Playoff Lenny was last year; the Bucs will need to be more of a run-heavy team the rest of the way to survive offensively.
It speaks to the excellent coaching of Todd Bowles that the Buccaneers ranked inside the top twelve in defensive DVOA for both pass defense and run defense despite all of the injuries they faced throughout the year. Starting cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean have dealt with injuries all season, and Carlton Davis missed some time earlier in the year. Still, their absences have forced Ross Cockrell and Pierre Desir to step up, and they have played relatively well. Some opponents will challenge the Bucs’ secondary in the postseason, but the Eagles aren’t one of them. The return of Lavonte David will be huge as the Bucs take on arguably the best rushing offense in football, and Tampa will need to get back to the run defense that seemingly led the NFL in every significant statistical category the past few years. Keep an eye out for an epic matchup between Philly center Jason Kelce and Tampa defensive tackle Vita Vea.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks & Prediction
Assuming Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson can play this week, the Eagles’ offensive line is uniquely well-equipped to move the ball against a stout Tampa front seven that has suffered some injuries lately. The expectation of heavy wind and rain in Tampa on Sunday serves the Eagles’ benefit, as it’s hard to imagine the Buccaneers firing on all cylinders offensively without some of their top pass-catchers. Some high-profile matchups will define this game, including Mike Evans vs. Darius Slay, Jordan Mailata vs. Shaquill Barrett, and Jason Kelce vs. Vita Vea. I believe the Eagles can win a couple of those matchups in this game, and they will likely hang around and make things difficult for Tampa. I’m not going as far as to pick the Eagles to win this game outright, but it’s going to be a challenge for the Bucs, and I like the Eagles to cover the long spread as a road dog.
Sharp action has already hammered the Eagles from +9.5 to +8.5, and it could go further, so make sure to get in early if you want to bet. The under has also already been steamed down from 49 points to 46.5 points, and it will likely move more as news of the bad weather conditions becomes more widespread. With the poor weather and some offensive injuries for both teams, I like the under to about 45 points in this game. If it goes further, you can run a teaser with the Eagles ATS.
My Predictions: Buccaneers win 24-19, Eagles cover, under 46.5 points
Best Bet: under 46.5 points or 6-Point Teaser: Eagles +14.5 and under 52 points