Get Eagles vs. Commanders player prop picks & odds for the (10/29/23) matchup
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Eagles vs. Commanders Player Prop Picks
The Washington Commanders (3-4) play host to the Philadelphia Eagles (6-1) this Sunday (10/29/23) in a rematch of these team’s Week 4 matchup, which the Eagles won in overtime. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Eagles vs. Commanders player prop bets.
A.J. Brown 125+ alt receiving yards (+270 at FanDuel)
When these teams played in Week 4, A.J. Brown went off for a season-high 175 receiving yards. That was his second of what is now five consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards. That five-game streak tied an NFL record held by Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson.
Can Brown do it again this week and break the record? We are betting that he does. Not only do we love his chances against this weak Commanders secondary, but this is also just a fun bet to follow and represents a solid value.
Brown has become a target monster for quarterback Jalen Hurts this season. After setting a career high with 145 targets last year (8.53 per game), he is averaging a whopping 10.7 targets per game so far this season. The trust between Brown and Hurts is at an all-time high.
Is AJ Brown going to hit 125+ again this weekend against the Commanders? I break down what’s led to the streak and why I think it continues@heykayadams @UpAndAdamsShow @Eagles pic.twitter.com/YG6VxmvGld
— Matt Hamilton (@MattHamilton25) October 27, 2023
Brown did most of his damage in that Week 4 game against rookie first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes, who at 165 pounds simply cannot match up with the 225-pound Brown. Forbes has since been benched, and the Commanders’ secondary has been slightly better with veterans Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St. Juste manning the corners. But they are still just 27th against the pass and 27th in both DVOA and EPA.
In two of the last three weeks, the Commanders have allowed both Drake London and DJ Moore to gain at least 125 receiving yards, and Moore torched them for a whopping 230. Brown is better than both of those players and has a much better QB throwing him the ball.
The biggest risk with this pick is game script, as the Eagles may not need to throw the ball deep if they jump out to a big lead. The close game in Week 4 was part of the reason Brown stayed active throughout the game. We expect the Eagles to win this game a bit more convincingly, but Brown could still easily top this number even in a more lopsided game script. He surpassed this number in the middle of the third quarter last time.
Finally, the Eagles have shown a keen awareness in the past of trying to help a player break records when they are getting close. If Brown gets close to this mark by the 4th quarter, there is a very good chance that Hurts will be feeding him the ball on their final few possessions to try to help him set the record.
Jalen Hurts over 245.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
If A.J. Brown is going to have at least 125 receiving yards, then it follows that Hurts should be able to at least double that in his total passing yards. So let’s pair that Brown pick with the over on Hurts’ passing yards.
Hurts got off to a slow start this season with under 200 passing yards in each of his first two games, but he has been fantastic since then. He is averaging 291.6 passing yards per game over his last five games, including a season-high 319 against the Commanders. He has gone well over 245.5 passing yards in each of those five games, with a low of 277 yards.
We also learned last week that Hurts is dealing with a knee injury right now that seems to be limiting his mobility and his willingness to be aggressive using his legs. It doesn’t seem to be effecting his ability to maneuver in the pocket to avoid pressure, but it does mean that he’s less likely to take off and run when a play breaks down. Instead he’s going to be patient and wait for his receivers to get open, or just dump it off to his talented pass-catching running back D’Andre Swift.
As with the Brown pick, the biggest risk with this pick is the game script allowing Hurts to dial back the deep passing game in the 2nd half. But as with Brown, Hurts might not need a ton of second-half volume to exceed this number.
If you want to tail this pick, make sure to head over to FanDuel to get the best value. The line at FanDuel is at 245.5 as of this writing, but 249.5 everywhere else, and the odds at each sportsbook are virtually identical. So give yourself the extra few yards of cushion by getting the line at 245.5.
Brian Robinson Jr. under 39.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Things are trending in the wrong direction for Robinson Jr. The second-year runner from Alabama is averaging just 21.33 yards per game on just 2.67 yards per carry over his last three games. The Giants are allowing the sixth most rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry and they still held Robinson Jr. to just 23 yards on eight carries last week.
The Eagles have the best run defense in the NFL this season. They are first in run defense DVOA and they are allowing a league-best 62.9 rushing yards per game, more than 13 yards fewer than the next best team.
Robinson did have 45 yards against the Eagles (on 14 carries) in the Week 4 game, but his role in the offense has diminished since then. Rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr., who is a similar power style back as Robinson, has been getting more involved in the backfield over the last two weeks and has been more effective than Robinson, averaging 4.91 yards per carry. Last week Rodriguez had only one fewer carry than Robinson did.
The only hesitation with this pick is that the Eagles’ best run stuffer, mammoth defensive tackle Jordan Davis, is questionable for the game with a hamstring injury. It’s hard to know what kind of effect his potential absence would have on the Eagles’ run defense, but it’s not enough to scare us away from fading Robinson this week.