Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres (10/18/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

All season long, it looked like the NLCS would feature the Dodgers and the winner of the NL East. Instead, enter the team that finished 22 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and the distant third-place finisher in the NL East. Yes, the Phillies and Padres are playing for a trip to the World Series, and their series gets started at Petco Park on Tuesday night.

Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Tuesday’s matchup in San Diego.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Betting Odds

The Padres are slight favorites at -126 on the moneyline, with the over/under set at 7 runs.

Yu Darvish pitched like an ace down the stretch and into the postseason, but this line is as close as it is because the same can be said about Zack Wheeler. This game will come down to which ace bends first, much like the matchup between Wheeler and Kyle Wright did in the NLDS. Both of these teams have made a habit of timely hitting. Do the Padres have the advantage in that department in front of their home fans?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Picks & Prediction

My pick: Padres Moneyline (-126), Under 7 Runs

The Padres seem to have found something at the plate. With most of the lineup now contributing and delivering timely hits, I could see the offense breaking through against Wheeler or the bullpen late in the game – much like the Braves did against Wheeler in the NLDS.

San Diego clearly has a home-field advantage in this postseason, and Darvish should be fired up in his first postseason start at Petco Park. Between Darvish’s recent success and the way this fully rested Padres bullpen has performed this month, San Diego looks like the better bet in Game 1.

Philadelphia Phillies Starting Lineup

LF K. Schwarber L
1B R. Hoskins R
C J. Realmuto R
DH B. Harper L
RF N. Castellanos R
3B A. Bohm R
CF B. Marsh L
2B J. Segura R
SS B. Stott L

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish had a great bounce-back season for the Padres, posting a 3.10 ERA over 30 starts (194.2 IP) with a 3.31 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts. Darvish does a terrific job of limiting hits, which could help counter a Phillies offense that sits top-10 in batting average.

Unlike Blake Snell or Mike Clevinger, he typically gives the Padres length that will help Bob Melvin have an easy transition to his two top-tier relievers. Darvish lasted 6+ innings in 28 of his 30 starts this season, so you’d have to imagine the Phillies won’t get rid of him easily. They’ll have to get to Darvish if they want to win this game – not impossible, but certainly not easy.

The Phillies had the 8th-highest OPS in baseball this season, even without Bryce Harper for a portion of the year. Though they’ve had a couple duds in the postseason, this is an intimidating group right now. J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper are hitting like the all-stars they are, and Rhys Hoskins showed what he’s capable of with his blast in Game 3 of the NLDS.

The key for the Padres will be making Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber look like they did in St. Louis and Atlanta. Both were struggling to make any contact, and that doesn’t project well against Darvish or this imposing bullpen. The Padres will have to live with allowing a home run or two. If they can limit traffic on the basepaths, they can survive that.

San Diego Padres Starting Lineup

LF J. Profar S
RF J. Soto L
3B M. Machado R
DH J. Bell S
2B J. Cronenworth L
1B W. Myers R
SS H. Kim R
CF T. Grisham L
C A. Nola R

San Diego Padres vs. Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler has pitched like an ace since the day he arrived in Philadelphia, and that’s continued into the postseason. Wheeler followed up a scoreless outing against the Cardinals with another strong showing in Atlanta – until some weak contact led to three runs for the Braves in the 6th inning.

Overall, Wheeler posted a 2.82 ERA across 26 starts this season, with a 2.89 FIP and 1.04 WHIP. Like Darvish, Wheeler is capable if giving the Phillies serious length – that’ll be important with the bullpen advantage in San Diego’s favor.

The Padres’ offense has been far from perfect this postseason, but their Game 4 win over the Dodgers was a taste of what they need if they’re going to win a championship. With the odds stacked against them, they strung together five hits and soon added another to give themselves the lead. San Diego is good for the occasional home run, even if it comes from a non-household name (Grisham, Cronenworth). If they can add a little bit of power on top of this timely hitting they’ve discovered, the Padres should be able to plate some runs in Game 1.

The key might be knocking Wheeler out of the game just as they knocked Tyler Anderson out before their Game 4 rally. The sooner they make this a bullpen game, the better.