Phillies vs. Rangers: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (4/1/23)

After Jacob DeGrom got absolutely shelled by the Phillies in his Texas debut, but the Rangers pulled out a surprise win anyways, it’s clear that anything could go down in game 2. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for this matchup, in which I’m predicting the Phillies to win and cash their moneyline of -125.

Phillies vs. Rangers Prediction

You may have thought that Jacob DeGrom having his American League debut against a familiar NL East foe might give him a bit of comfort- you’d have been wrong. The Phillies were just a bit too familiar with his game, and hung 5 runs on him in less than 4 innings of work.

But none of that mattered, as the Rangers bats thoroughly got to Philly ace Aaron Nola, saddling him with a stat line almost identical to DeGrom’s and allowed their bullpen to hold down the lead in a high-scoring affair.

I wouldn’t expect similar fireworks in another matchup between two really solid arms, however. This time it’ll be Zack Wheeler, who has sat under an ERA of 3 in each year of his Philly tenure thus far, and another newcomer for the Rangers, Nathan Eovaldi, previously of the Red Sox.

As I alluded to above, I have faith in this pair of starting pitchers to keep the runs to a more reasonable level this time out, which leads me to my pick of under 7.5 runs. The over is going to be a popular pick after the absolute explosion on Opening Day, but it’s just not likely that the teams will be replicating that display. As far as a winner, I’m going with the Phillies; -125 is very solid value for a team with a decent starting pitching advantage, and it’s just hard not to expect the defending NL champs to bounce back in game 2 of the young season.

Phillies vs. Rangers Prediction: Phillies ML (-125), u7.5 runs (-105)

Phillies vs. Rangers Odds

The Phillies are road favorites in this one, with a moneyline of -125, and +135 odds to cover a run line of -1.5. The Rangers are -155 to cover the spread, but +105 to win the game, and over 7.5 runs (-115) is slightly compared to the under (-105)

Phillies vs. Rangers Key Matchups

Nathan Eovaldi Vs. Lefty-Heavy Phillies Lineup

Eovaldi, who has fairly significant platoon splits across his career, will be thankful he doesn’t have to face Bryce Harper, as the Phillies superstar- perhaps the best lefty bat in the sport- will be shelved with an injury for quite some time. The same is true for Rhys Hoskins, who is a righty, but a formidable bat who is unavailable at this time.

That being said, Eovaldi is still going to have to deal with another powerful lefty; defending NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber. Fellow Team USA stars J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner, one of the brightest stars of the tournament and just in general, flank Schwarber in one of the more imposing tops of the lineup in baseball- and that’s a version missing some of the best bats.

It goes from bad to maybe not worse, but still annoying and problematic for Eovaldi as you go down the lineup; three of the last four hitters in the Philly lineup are lefties, so there’s no free outs anywhere you look in this lineup. There’s no doubt that it’ll be one of the most dangerous in the sport when fully healthy but even now, it should be enough for them to get the job done in Texas.

Zack Wheeler Vs. An Intriguing Rangers Lineup

As they showed in game 1, this Rangers lineup has some muscle to it, and they are not to be taken likely. They will be squaring off against one of the best in the business, Zach Wheeler. The veteran righty has flourished since leaving the Mets, as so many do, and while his 2022 self was a step down from the otherworldly form he showed a year earlier, he was still very sharp, putting up an ERA+ of 144 and a WHIP just barely north of 1.

At the heart of the Texas lineup is Corey Seager, who had a solid Rangers debut season a year ago, as he saw his average and other rate-based metrics slip, but notched a career-high 33 homers and made his first All-Star team since 2017. He’s surrounded by solid bats too, multi-time MVP finalist Marcus Semien and Nathaniel Lowe, who hit over .300 a year ago.

One of the more interesting players to watch will be Josh Jung. A true born and raised Texan, he grew up in San Antonio, before excelling in college ball at Texas Tech, and is sure to be a fan favorite in Arlington. The young infielder has tremendous power, and showed flashes in limited time at the end of last season, so this will be his first full year of opportunities to show it all off.

All of that being said, this is a team that tends to swing big, and often miss big; they were in the top-8 of the league in both homers and strikeouts a year ago. This isn’t a great matchup for them- Wheeler is one of those rare pitchers who is adept at both racking up K’s, but also keeping the ball in the yard, which is a major reason I’m sticking with his side in my Phillies vs. Rangers prediction.

Phillies vs. Rangers Starting Lineups

Phillies Starting Lineup

SS T. Turner (R)
DH K. Schwarber (L)
C J.T. Realmuto (R)
1B D. Hall (L)
RF N. Castellanos (R)
2B B. Stott (L)
3B A. Bohm (R)
LF J. Cave (L)
CF B. Marsh (L)

Rangers Starting Lineup

2B M. Semien (R)
SS C. Seager (L)
1B N. Lowe (L)
CF A. Garcia (R)
3B J. Jung (R)
C J. Heim (S)
RF R. Grossman (S)
DH B. Miller (L)
LF J. Smith (L)