Phillies vs. Yankees: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (4/4/23)

The Phillies’ NL pennant defense got off to a rough start last weekend, with Philadelphia taking a sweep against the Rangers. Will things get any easier against the Yankees? Matt Strahm takes the mound Tuesday for a hurting pitching staff, facing Domingo German. The Yankees are favored at -165 on the moneyline, with the over/under at 8.5 runs.

Let’s make predictions for Tuesday’s matchup and break down why this Phillies pitching staff offers little hope.

Phillies vs. Yankees Prediction

0-5 seems like a shocking record for the Phillies, but that could be the reality after both Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler got blown up to start the season.

Philadelphia’s bullpen already looks unsteady and overworked, which is bad news heading into what pretty much amounts to a bullpen game on Tuesday. So far, the Phillies’ lineup just hasn’t had the same pop it did when Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins were in the fold.

Domingo German was a bit volatile last season, so there’s the potential for the power surge to begin in a smaller Yankee Stadium, but it’s hard to have much faith in the Phillies when a struggling bullpen is going up against a Yankees lineup that is routinely hitting multiple home runs each night so far this season.

With little value at -165, Yankees -1.5 at +125 makes more sense in what should be a high-scoring game all-around.

Phillies vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees -1.5 (+125)

Phillies vs. Yankees Odds

The Yankees are -165 on the moneyline, with the over/under at 8.5 runs. You can get the Yankees -1.5 at +125.

The Phillies have been a disaster so far this season, but that obviously won’t last forever. Is there any chance of a bounce-back performance at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday?

Phillies vs. Yankees Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Phillies vs. Yankees.

Phillies Bullpen vs. Yankees’ Power

Tuesday amounts to a bullpen game for the Phillies. Strahm has started one game since the start of the 2020 season and was already used out of the bullpen once this season, so he won’t be giving Philadelphia much length.

The Phillies took steps to retool their bullpen this winter after a strong postseason from the group, but it imploded in the first two games against Texas. The Yankees are going to see nearly the entire Phillies’ bullpen on Tuesday, in all likelihood, and that could spell trouble for Rob Thomson’s team.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both appear to have their power stroke at full force right now, and the rest of New York’s lineup has plenty of pop. A bullpen that got burned by the Rangers can easily get burned at Yankee Stadium.

Phillies’ Power Drought vs. Yankees Pitching

The Phillies were one of baseball’s most home run-happy teams in 2022, but they entered this series against the Yankees with just one home run in three games. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, and Darick Hall are among the hitters without a homer. That will have to change quickly if the Phillies want to get back on track, especially with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins out.

Domingo German, who probably won’t last much longer than five innings, allowed multiple home runs in 21.4% of his starts last season (11 total in 72.1 IP). This is a decent opportunity for Schwarber and others to wake up their bats, and after Schwarber barely missed one on Sunday, it feels like there’s a chance we could see a breakthrough. The lack of power without Harper and Hoskins remains a concern.

Phillies vs. Yankees Starting Lineups

Phillies Starting Lineup

SS Trea Turner R
DH Kyle Schwarber L
C J.T. Realmuto R
1B Darick Hall L
RF Nick Castellanos R
2B Bryson Stott L
3B Alec Bohm R
LF Jake Cave L
CF Brandon Marsh L

Yankees Starting Lineup

2B DJ LeMahieu R
CF Aaron Judge R
1B Anthony Rizzo L
RF Giancarlo Stanton R
3B Josh Donaldson R
DH Gleyber Torres R
LF Oswaldo Cabrera S
C Jose Trevino R
SS Anthony Volpe R