It’s been an ugly start for the Phillies, who allowed 37 runs over their first four games. That’s the franchise’s worst mark since pre-1900. Luckily, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are coming up in the rotation and have a chance at redemption. Nola faces Gerrit Cole in a matchup of aces on Wednesday. The Yankees are home favorites at -135 on the moneyline with an over/under of 7 runs.
Let’s make predictions for Wednesday’s matchup and take a look at why the Phillies can take that next step with Nola on the mound.
Phillies vs. Yankees Prediction
This feels like a good opportunity for the Phillies. It’s hard to imagine Nola having back-to-back clunkers, especially against a lineup that should allow him to rack up a few strikeouts.
The Phillies’ struggling offense is a concern against Gerrit Cole considering how dominant Cole looked on Opening Day, but Cole’s propensity for giving up home runs could give Philadelphia a chance to break out of its power drought.
The Yankees have hit very well at home to this point, but if one pitcher is going to break this rough stretch for the Phillies, it’s Nola. I’m taking advantage of this Phillies +112 line before the pendulum swings back in their direction.
Phillies vs. Yankees Prediction: Phillies +115
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds
The Yankees enter as home favorites at -135 on the moneyline, with the over/under at 7 runs. You can get Yankees -1.5 at +165.
New York isn’t favored as significantly as the first two games of the series, largely due to Nola’s presence on the mound for the Phillies. On the other hand, Gerrit Cole is starting for the Yankees, which is why we see the over/under dangerously low in a season that has seen an uptick in offense,
Phillies vs. Yankees Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Phillies vs. Yankees.
Phillies’ Power Drought vs. Gerrit Cole
The Phillies hit one home run in their first four games, which is a shocking number considering their 2022 performance and the league-wide uptick in home runs so far this season.
Breaking through against Gerrit Cole sounds like a tough task, but it might not be – at least in that department. Cole allowed 33 home runs last season, the most in the AL, and has been burned by homers even in some of his better years.
The Phillies badly need Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and the rest of a Harper-less, Hoskins-less lineup to show some fight. Strikeouts might be high against Cole, but a couple home runs could make all the difference.
Yankees’ High-Strikeout Lineup vs. Aaron Nola
The Yankees’ offense has been everything Aaron Boone could’ve hoped to this point, with plenty of home runs and none of the fatigue that set in late last season. It still ranks bottom-10 in the league in strikeouts, which could spell trouble against Aaron Nola.
Nola is coming off four consecutive seasons with a K/9 rate north of 10.0, and a small setback on Opening Day doesn’t change what he’s capable of doing. His strikeout potential is a major reason for my Phillies vs. Yankees prediction on Wednesday.
If Nola can generate swings-and-misses from a Yankees lineup that does strike out more than most, the Phillies could be set up for one of their early bright spots this season.
Phillies vs. Yankees Starting Lineups
Phillies Starting Lineup
SS Trea Turner R
DH Kyle Schwarber L
C J.T. Realmuto R
1B Darick Hall L
RF Nick Castellanos R
2B Bryson Stott L
3B Alec Bohm R
LF Jake Cave L
CF Brandon Marsh L
Yankees Starting Lineup
2B DJ LeMahieu R
CF Aaron Judge R
1B Anthony Rizzo L
RF Giancarlo Stanton R
3B Josh Donaldson R
DH Gleyber Torres R
LF Oswaldo Cabrera S
C Jose Trevino R
SS Anthony Volpe R