Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/8/23)

The Phoenix Suns visit the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns are coming off a second straight win against the Nuggets at home. The current prediction is that the Suns cover the 5.5-point spread on the road. The Suns have looked almost unstoppable on offense, even without Chris Paul, and the Nuggets don’t seem like they have an answer for him. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions!

Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction

The Phoenix Suns have been almost unstoppable at times this postseason.

The Suns go as Devin Booker goes this postseason. He’s been extremely efficient and is scoring more than anyone in the postseason has since Michael Jordan. He’s leads the NBA in postseason scoring at 37 PPG, and then he also is tied for the lead on the Suns in assists at 7 per game and he leads the team in steals at 2 per game. Kevin Durant is up next in production for their dynamic duo. He averages 30 PPG this postseason and leads the team in blocks at 1.4 per game. Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul are up next in scoring production. Ayton’s averaging 13 PPG and leading the team in rebounds at 10 per game, while Chris Paul is still next despite the injury. He averages 12 PPG and is tied for the lead in assists at 7 per game.

The Suns have been almost unstoppable on offense this postseason. They’re 6th in scoring at 115.6 PPG, 2nd in offensive rating at 119.2, and 2nd in field goal percentage at 49.8%. They are also third in blocks at 5.8 per game.

On the other side, the Denver Nuggets are playing very well too as the top overall seed in the West.

Nikola Jokic has carried the Nuggets when needed this postseason and especially in this series. He leads the team in scoring at 31 PPG, in rebounding at 13 per game, and assists at 9 per game this postseason. Jamal Murray is up next in scoring production. Murray is showing what he really can do now that he’s back healthy. He averages 27 PPG and is second in assists at 7 per game. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are up next in production to make up their top four in production. Porter Jr. averages 14 PPG and is second in rebounding at 8 per game, while Gordon also averages 14 PPG.

The Nuggets are very balanced so far but are better on offense this postseason. They’re 3rd in offensive rating at 117.8, 5th in field goal percentage at 47.4%, and 2nd in point differential at +8.1. They’re also 5th in points allowed at 105.3 per game and 6th in rebounds at 45.6 per game.

The Nuggets being at home makes this tough, but the Suns have been on fire and should at least cover this spread and make it a one possession game. There’s also a slight chance you should take them on the money line because of how unstoppable they’ve looked.

Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

The Denver Nuggets are 5.5-point home favorites against the Phoenix Suns and are at -205 on the money line. The over/under is also at 228. It makes sense the Nuggets are favored because they are at home. The over/under also makes sense because each team has been very good on offense in the postseason. The spread should also stay where it’s at before tip-off because Nikola Jokic isn’t suspended and Chris Paul is still out.

Betting Trends

Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Key Matchups

Can Kentavious Caldwell-Pope matchup with Devin Booker? Can Deandre Ayton matchup with Nikola Jokic?

Devin Booker vs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Devin Booker has been unstoppable this postseason. He’s averaging 37 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who averages 10 points, 1 assist, and 3 rebounds per game. Pope has been very good, but Booker is the biggest reason why the Suns should cover this spread on the road with how he’s playing right now.

Nikola Jokic vs. Deandre Ayton

Nikola Jokic has been almost unstoppable this postseason. He’s averaging 31 points, 9 assists, and 13 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Deandre Ayton, who averages 13 points, 1 assist, and 10 rebounds per game. Ayton’s been inconsistent against the MVP-runner up and Jokic should win this matchup. The Suns should still cover, but Jokic is such a difficult matchup for anyone and Ayton’s been the main matchup here.

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup

PG: Cameron Payne
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Josh Okogie
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Deandre Ayton

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineups

PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Phoenix Suns Injuries: PG Chris Paul (Groin) O

Denver Nuggets Injuries: None