Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat Preview (11/14/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat will showdown on Monday night in a non-conference battle between two teams that are currently fighting significant injuries. See my analysis and prediction on this game below, as well as the projected starting lineups, updated injury news, and odds.

Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Miami Heat are two-point home favorites against the Phoenix Suns at home (in the soon-to-be-renamed FTX Arena.) Phoenix started the season strong, but injuries are causing issues to its depth, which already was a concern heading into the 2022-23 season.

Jae Crowder, Cameron Johnson, and Ish Wainright are all listed as out for the Phoenix Suns, while Chris Paul and Landry Shamet are questionable. For Miami, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Omer Yurtseven will not suit up on Monday night.

Phoenix Suns Vs. Miami Heat Prediction

After a strong start to the 2022-23 regular season, the Phoenix Suns have cooled off a bit, going 2-2 in their past four games. This sudden change can likely be attributed to the absence of Cam Johnson, who tore part of his meniscus in his right knee, and Chris Paul, who has missed the past two and a half games.

Miami is not completely healthy either; it is missing Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven, and Victor Oladipo. Being without Herro and Oladipo is a huge hit to the Heat’s backcourt, making it rather thin at the moment.

It hasn’t been all rosy in Miami, even before Herro’s injury. The Heat stand at 12th place currently in the Eastern Conference with a mediocre 6-7 record. With teams like the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and New York Knicks all putting together strong starts to the season, Miami needs to turn it around fast if it wants to jump back in to the playoff picture.

I have some concerns about the Miami Heat right now and find it difficult to justify backing them. For one, the Heat have relied on their stifling defense in past seasons to keep them afloat during droughts, yet they are currently 27th in opponent effective field goal percentage and 26th in opponent 3P% (three-point percentage). These are truly awful statistical standings for a team with such an emphasis on defense!

I’m likely riding with the Phoenix Suns against the spread, especially since Miami is 2-7 at home ATS this season. If Chris Paul plays, this will be a great line to get in early on!

Betting Trends

  • Phoenix is 2-3 ATS on the road in 2022-23
  • Miami is 2-7 ATS at home in 2022-23
  • The combined over record of these two teams is 11-13-1 in 2022-23

Key Matchups

The key matchup here belongs to Bam Adebayo and Deandre Ayton, two of the brightest centers in the league outside of Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. Check out my analysis for this matchup below and which player likely has the advantage.

Bam Adebayo vs. Deandre Ayton

Adebayo and Ayton have played each other six times so far in their young careers. Ayton has averaged roughly 17 points and 12 rebounds, while Adebayo has posted averages of 16 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.

While looking at a player’s historical performances against a particular opponent does hold some value, it is important not to overvalue those games. The Heat are allowing the sixth-fewest points and fifth-fewest rebounds to opposing centers, while Phoenix has struggled thus far in defending centers. I’m going to give a slight advantage to Bam Adebayo in this matchup.

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineup

PG: Cam Payne
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Torrey Craig
C: Deandre Ayton

Miami Heat Starting Lineups

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Max Strus
SF: Caleb Martin
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Phoenix Suns Injuries: Jae Crowder (Out), Cameron Johnson (Out), Ish Wainright (Out), Landry Shamet (Q), Chris Paul (Q)

Miami Heat Injuries: Omer Yurtseven (Out), Tyler Herro (Out), Victor Oladipo (Out)

Drew is one of the NBA Lead Writers at Lineups.com, specializing in betting content such as game predictions and player props. With a deep knowledge of players and prospects, Drew has an extensive edge in covering everything NBA.

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