Predictions for Pirates vs. Mets: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 5

Friday’s game between the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-45) and New York Mets (42-43) going head to head at PNC Park has a projected final score of 5-4 (based on our computer prediction) in favor of the Pirates, so it should be a tight matchup. The game will start at 6:40 PM ET on July 5.

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Pirates vs. Mets Matchup Info

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Pirates vs. Mets Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Pirates 5, Mets 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8 runs

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Pirates vs. Mets Betting Lines

Pirates vs Mets Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Pirates -143 +120 8 -105 -115

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Pirates Betting Insights

  • Pittsburgh has been chosen as the favorite in 37 games this year, and has walked away with the win 18 times (48.6%) in those games.
  • This season, the Pirates have been victorious seven times in 13 chances when named as a favorite of at least -143 or shorter on the moneyline.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 39 of 86 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Pirates had a 4-2 record over the six games they were favored on the moneyline in their past 15 matchups.
  • In its past 15 outings, Pittsburgh and its opponents combined to go over the run total five times (all 15 games had set totals).

Mets Betting Insights

  • New York is 19-20 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 48.7% of those games).
  • The Mets have a 6-7 record (winning 46.2% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of +120 or longer.
  • In the 85 games oddsmakers have set an over/under for New York, it has combined with opponents to go over the total 45 times (45-37-3).
  • The Mets have played as underdogs five times in their past 15 games and won each of those contests.
  • In its past 15 games with a total, New York and its opponents are 10-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.

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Pirates vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

Pirates’ Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes

  • The 22-year-old has an ERA of 2.06, a 7 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.032 in nine games this season.
  • Paul Skenes’ team is 5-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Skenes’ team has won six of his nine starts this season.
  • In Skenes’ nine starts with a total, the teams have hit the over five times.

Mets’ Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino

  • The 30-year-old has an ERA of 3.42, with 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 16 games this season. Opposing hitters have a .225 batting average against him.
  • The Mets are 1-3 in Severino’s four starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • In Severino’s 16 starts, his team is 8-8.
  • Severino’s starts went over the run total 10 times in 16 games with a set total this season.

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Pirates’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 41-45
Home 20-22
Road 21-23
One-Run Games 15-14
Scoring 5+ Runs 25-6

Mets’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 42-43
Home 21-25
Road 21-18
One-Run Games 16-10
Scoring 5+ Runs 29-14

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