Predictions for Pirates vs. Rays: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – June 23

Sunday’s game at PNC Park has the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-39) squaring off against the Tampa Bay Rays (37-40) at 1:35 PM ET (on June 23). Our computer prediction projects a narrow 5-4 victory for the Pirates, so expect a tight matchup.

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Pirates vs. Rays Matchup Info

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Pirates vs. Rays Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Pirates 5, Rays 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8 runs

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Pirates vs. Rays Betting Lines

Pirates vs Rays Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Pirates -170 +142 8 -104 -125

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Pirates Betting Insights

  • Pittsburgh has been chosen as the favorite in 34 games this year, and has walked away with the win 17 times (50%) in those games.
  • The Pirates have a win-loss record of 2-2 when favored by -170 or better by bookmakers this year.
  • Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 35 of 76 opportunities.
  • The Pirates went 6-3 across the nine games in which they were moneyline favorites in their past 15 matchups.
  • In its past 15 outings, Pittsburgh and its opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 15 games had set totals).

Rays Betting Insights

  • Tampa Bay has gone 13-20 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 39.4% of those games).
  • The Rays have played in four games as a moneyline underdog with odds of +142 or longer without a win.
  • Tampa Bay has had an over/under set by oddsmakers 77 times, and it has combined with opponents to go over the total in 40 of those games (40-36-1).
  • The Rays have played as underdogs in 11 of their past 15 games and won three of those contests.
  • In its past 15 games with a total, Tampa Bay and its opponents have combined to hit the over eight times.

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Pirates vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

Pirates’ Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes

  • The 22-year-old has pitched to a 2.29 ERA this season with 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 1.6 walks per nine across seven games.
  • Paul Skenes’ team is 5-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • In games Skenes has started, his team is 6-1.
  • In games Skenes has started this season, the teams are 5-2-0 at hitting the over.

Rays’ Starting Pitcher: Aaron Civale

  • In 15 games this season, the 29-year-old has an ERA of 5.42, with 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .274 against him.
  • The Rays were the underdog on the moneyline for six Aaron Civale starts this season — they lost all of the games.
  • Civale’s team has won four of his 15 starts.
  • Civale’s starts went over the run total nine times in 15 games with a set total this season.

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Pirates’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 37-39
Home 19-19
Road 18-20
One-Run Games 14-12
Scoring 5+ Runs 22-5

Rays’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 37-40
Home 19-23
Road 18-17
One-Run Games 15-7
Scoring 5+ Runs 23-6

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