Pirates vs Mariners: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (5/26/23)

After a day off, the Pirates are heading to Seattle to try and snap their two-series losing streak. The Mariners are coming off a four-game sweep of the A’s and need a win here to try and close the gap in the AL West.

There are a lot of similarities between these two teams: quality pitching, middle-of-the-pack batting, and near identical records, so this game is poised to be competitive. Let’s take a look at what’s on tap for Friday’s game at T-Mobile Park.

Pirates vs. Mariners Prediction

Pirates vs. Mariners Prediction: Pirates +135
George Kirby and Mitch Keller are the starting pitchers in this game, and their numbers are pretty staggering.

Kirby has been the most consistent on the mound this year for the M’s and the stats show us much. Along with having the 12th-best ERA in the league (2.62), he’s tied as the league leader in quality starts (8), and he has walked just five batters this year, which also leads the league. It’s worth noting that this Pittsburgh team has walked 178 times this year, the sixth-most of any team.

Keller has also put on a clinic this season, and even beats Kirby in most pitching categories. Boasting a 2.44 ERA, eight quality starts, and a 0.97 WHIP. He has 77 strikeouts this year, which includes 13 K’s against Baltimore and 10 against the Dodgers. The Mariners have the fourth-worst batting average in the league, but get on base significantly more against a right-handed pitcher like Keller.

The Pirates are coming off of consecutive series losses against the Rangers and Diamondbacks, but got a rest day to get back on track. Meanwhile, the Mariners are coming off a lopsided series win over the A’s where they got the bats swinging again, but faced a 10-win A’s team.

Pittsburgh has done better on the road than they have at their home field, and have their ace on the mound, who, unfortunately for Seattle, has the second-most K’s in the National League and fourth-most overall. Meanwhile, three Seattle starters – Teoscar Hernandeez, Eugenio Suarez and Julio Rodriguez – are all sitting in the top 10 in terms of total strikeouts.

Expect the M’s to struggle to take a huge lead as they readjust to hitting against quality pitching, which they haven’t seen in several days. Kirby and Keller both perform well, but Seattle has a harder time in the box and Pittsburgh comes out refusing to drop a third consecutive series. Take Pittsburgh to win a low-scoring game at a decent value.

Pirates vs. Mariners Odds

The Mariners (-155) enter as home favorites in this matchup against the Pirates (+135) with Kirby facing off against Keller on the mound. Good pitching on both teams lends itself to a slightly below average over/under of 7 runs. Pittsburgh is 16-20 overall when playing as the underdog and Seattle is 18-14 as the favorite.

If you are interested in betting the run line, you can get the Mariners -1.5 at +140 or the Pirates +1.5 at -165. Note that the Mariners have a 9-12 run line record as the home favorite and Pittsburgh has a 12-8 record as the away underdog.

Pirates vs. Mariners Key Matchup

How will Mitch Keller hold up against this Mariners lineup? Check out the key matchups that could decide this Pirates vs Mariners.

Mitch Keller vs. Mariners Lineup

The Mariners got the bat swinging in their series against Oakland, notching over 30 hits, but it’s back to reality, and a harsh one at that, as they take on Keller. Though Keller doesn’t have a ton of experience throwing against these guys, two starters have faced him a lot through their careers:

Keller has faced Kolten Wong 15 times in his career, dating back to Wong’s time in the NL Central. Wong has a .820 OPS against Keller but Wong is in a slump right now – in his last five games, which includes 14 plate appearances, he’s recorded one hit. Eugenio Suarez, also hailing from the NL Central, has faced Keller 10 times in his career, and while he’s forfeited six strikeouts, he has a .929 OPS.

The rest of the lineup is decent but hasn’t been all that consistent in May. Jarred Kelenic has been the star of this lineup this year and poses a threat to Keller. But, Kelenic, a lefty, performs significantly better against other left-handed pitchers (.313/.340/.616) than right-handed pitchers (.273/.338/.492), like Keller.

With a 0.82 ERA, 29 strikeouts, and just 11 hits allowed over his last three starts, Keller may have the edge on this lineup, but the Mariners have some momentum heading into this, so it could make for some entertaining baseball.

Pirates vs. Mariners Starting Lineups

Pirates Starting Lineup
DH Andrew McCutchen R
LF Bryan Reynolds B
RF Connor Joe R
1B Carlos Santana B
CF Jack Suwinski L
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes R
SS Tucupita Marcano L
2B Ji Hwan Bae L
C Austin Hedges R

Mariners Starting Lineup
SS J.P. Crawford L
1B Ty France R
CF Julio Rodriguez R
LF Jarred Kelenic L
3B Eugenio Suarez R
C Cal Raleigh S
RF Teoscar Hernandez R
DH Taylor Trammell L
2B Kolten Wong L