The sinking Detroit Pistons (2-16) battle the New York Knicks (10-7) this Thursday (11/30/23). Get Pistons vs. Knicks moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks Prediction
It’s difficult to find value backing the Knicks because everything is beyond juiced, and a +14.5 spread just isn’t enticing. However, there’s a tantalizing niche prop that the books did not price well to me: Knicks to be leading the game at the end of every quarter. The -172 odds hold a 63% implied probability, which isn’t long enough. This bet will be a two unit play for me.
Detroit’s offense is in shambles because they completely lack even a whisper of spacing. Jalen Duren cannot venture beyond ten feet of the basket, and Ausar Thompson’s broken form has him shooting 11.8 percent from deep. Cade Cunningham is an inefficient shooter too who needs space to operate, so it’s a terrible combination. New York has given up the sixth fewest restricted area field goal attempts per game, and Mitchell Robinson is one of the few centers that can physically go toe to toe with Duren. The same can be said of Julius Randle versus Isaiah Stewart.
The Pistons typically rely on their stellar offensive rebounding to secure extra possessions and compensate for horrific efficiency, but New York has surrendered the lowest opponent offensive rebound rate in the NBA. Detroit won’t be able to bully this physical Knicks squad, which removes their most successful offensive trait. Meanwhile, Quentin Grimes ranked sixth across the NBA last year in Basketball Index’s metric perimeter isolation defense and third in ball screen navigation. He can harass Cunningham and neutralize his overall impact, which would be crippling for Detroit.
On the other end, the Pistons rank 23rd defending pick-and-roll ball screens, 22nd defending isolation offense, and 22nd defending the midrange. (per ShotQuality). New York’s offense heavily features all of these, and Jalen Brunson in particular is set up for a monster game.
Finally, Detroit’s bench has a case for worst in the league, while it’s a pillar of strength for New York. Immanuel Quickley, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein will absolutely decimate the Pistons and quickly stretch the lead into blowout territory.
Overall, the Pistons don’t even look like an NBA team at the moment, and New York is especially a terrible matchup for them. Back the Knicks to cruise here.
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks Prediction: Knicks Winning At End Of Every Quarter (-172 FD)
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Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks Best Odds
The New York Knicks are gargantuan 14.5 point favorites, which makes sense given the fact that Detroit has not won a game since October 28th and have lost their last three games by a combined 68 points. The Pistons need to win this game roughly 12.2 percent of the time for their +725 moneyline to be profitable in the long run.
Detroit Pistons Starting Lineup
New York Knicks Starting Lineup
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks Injuries
Joe Harris and Monte Morris are out for Detroit, and Bojan Bogdanovic is questionable to make his season debut. The Knicks, on the other hand, will have their full rotation at their disposal.
Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks Key Matchups
Pistons 1st Quarter 3PT Shooting
Detroit’s best chance to bust this prop is winning the first quarter before the game gets out of hand. If they come out hot from three, then there’s a small chance that the Pistons can prevail in the first quarter. Isaiah Stewart and Jaden Ivey would be their top options to do so, as the other three starters cannot be counted on to connect. It’s worth noting that New York has given up the second most made threes per game to both shooting guards and power forwards.
Knicks Free Throws
The Pistons rank dead last in opponent free throw rate, so the Knicks can rack up easy points from the charity stripe. For perspective, a league average free throw shooter (78.3%) produces the same expected points per possession as a 52.2 3PT% shooter. If Detroit continues to foul at an absurd rate, then their chances are slim even with a good initial shooting stretch.