Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills player prop picks & odds for the (1/15/24) matchup
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks
In what looks to be brutal weather conditions in Buffalo, the Bills will host the Steelers in an AFC Wild Card game. This game was postponed from Sunday due to inclement weather, and while wind is still expected to play a factor on Monday, the snow isn’t expected to be as heavy. In this article, I’ll break down some of the player props that I believe offer the most value in this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds possible for whichever prop you select. Let’s get to work.
Khalil Shakir Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110 Bet365)
Over the last three weeks, Khalil Shakir has cleared this receiving yardage prop in all three games. He has totaled 13 catches on 13 targets for 189 yards. With Gabe Davis out this week, Shakir should be even more important to the Bills’ passing game with potential on the table for more 12 personnel snaps when the Bills use those formations.
Shakir spends most of his time in the slot (77% snap share) and the Steelers have also been highly vulnerable to slot receivers. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has surrendered the third-most fantasy points per target in the slot per FantasyPointsData.
Throwing deep downfield won’t be as easy given the difficult weather conditions in Buffalo, but that shouldn’t impact Shakir. 286 of his 611 receiving yards this season (46.8%) have come after the catch. His aDOT is also 8.6 yards, tied for the 18th-lowest among 102 qualified wide receivers. The Bills can get the ball into his hands quickly and let him get to work after the catch.
Shakir leads the NFL with a +14.3% catch rate over expectation this season per Next Gen Stats. He has caught 86.7% of targets and has just one drop all season. Over 2.5 receptions also makes sense as a play, but it’s juiced heavily to the over and I believe the yardage prop offers more value at the current numbers.
Najee Harris Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-122 FanDuel)
Since Mason Rudolph became the starter for the Steelers, they have skewed very run-heavy and Najee Harris has been a huge part of it. Harris is averaging 24 rushing attempts per game across Rudolph’s three starts and he’s averaging 25.7 touches per game overall since Week 16. He has seen workhorse volume in Pittsburgh’s biggest games of the year.
Harris is projected to see fewer rushing attempts this week due to the expected game script. The Bills are 10-point favorites in this game, and it would follow logic for the Steelers to abandon the run if they’re trailing by multiple scores. However, I don’t see Pittsburgh moving the ball effectively without the run game, so even if they are in a negative game script, I still see Harris getting plenty of volume to keep pressure off Rudolph.
This line was priced at 14.5 earlier in the week, and it’s been steaming up leading up to kickoff. Most of the market has shifted to 16.5, but there’s still a 15.5 at FanDuel at the time of writing. I’d consider 16.5 to still be playable if you like the reasoning on this prop, but make sure you shop around for the best odds.
Dalton Kincaid Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Keeping with the theme of the Bills emphasizing the short passing game this week, Dalton Kincaid should see a big role in this game. After a quieter stretch, Kincaid has crushed the last two weeks with 80+ yards against both the Patriots and Dolphins. He has totaled 11 catches for 171 yards over that stretch as a crucial part of the offense.
Kincaid has an impressive 71.8% route run rate over those last two games, which means he’s rarely staying in to block and is usually in a position to receive a pass. This week, he’ll be in a great position against a Steelers defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends since Week 8.
Since Week 13, the Steelers have run the second-highest rate of single-high coverage in the NFL (64.9%). Against single-high, Kincaid has a 17.8% target share since Week 8, which is second on the team. Assuming his role remains steady, Kincaid should crush in this matchup against a vulnerable Steelers pass defense.