The Pittsburgh Steelers face the Cleveland Browns in a pivotal AFC North matchup on Snday (11/19/23). In this article, find player prop selections for Steelers vs. Browns featuring Kenny Pickett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jerome Ford and Najee Harris.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Picks
In this Steelers vs. Browns matchup, we’re looking at one of the lowest over/under totals of the season at 33 points. The defenses are expect the rule the day in this AFC North grudge match, so keep that in mind when placing player prop wagers in this one. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to get the best odds for the props you are choosing from as odds can vary widely. Let’s get to work.
Kenny Pickett Under 174.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
We’re looking at a pretty low number here for Kenny Pickett’s passing yards. But it’s well warranted as he’s been under this number in three straight games and four of his last six overall. Pickett finished with 222 passing yards against Cleveland earlier this year, but 71 of those yards came on a broken play to George Pickens. The Browns have given up very few big plays all year, so I wouldn’t bank on that happening again.
The Steelers have been a run-heavy offense this year, ranking second in neutral rushing rate. They won’t want Pickett to push the ball downfield against the Browns, who are allowing just 151.1 passing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL. Pickett ranks 35th with a 70% adjusted completion rate, so his lack of accuracy, low volume and bad matchup will all contribute to the under hitting here.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson Under 168.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
With Deshaun Watson out for the rest of the year, the Browns have turned to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their starting quarterback. DTR had one start earlier this year, and it didn’t go well as he completed just 19 of 36 passes for 121 yards and three interceptions. He was thrown to the wolves against an elite Ravens defense, but it doesn’t get much easier here.
The Steelers have an excellent defense across the board, and their coverage has improved dramatically since rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. became a full time starter – they’ve allowed the seventh-lowest passer rating in the NFL since that lineup change in Week 7. The Browns will look to reduce exposure for their young quarterback here.
This bet is relatively game-script-proof, as well. It’s highly unlikely the Steelers score at will against the Browns’ defense, so if Cleveland is trailing, it likely means DTR is struggling like he did in that prior start. Alternatively, if the Browns are leading, they will only lean on the run more in what should already be a very run-heavy game.
Jerome Ford Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Like I mentioned in the DTR writeup, I expect a very run heavy approach from the Browns who rank fifth in neutral rushing rate this season. After dealing with an ankle injury, Jerome Ford looked back to full health last week as he compiled 107 rushing yards against the Ravens’ tough defense last week.
Ford is a very talented running back, ranking 16th of 50 runners with 3.17 yards after contact per attempt this year. The Steelers have been more vulnerable against the run than the pass as of late, and they rank below average in DVOA and EPA. The return of Cameron Heyward helps the defensive line a ton, but I still expect heavy volume for Ford and the matchup is conducive to his success.
Najee Harris Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Don’t look now, but Najee Harris has been showing a lot more juice as a runner lately. Harris has gone over this number in two straight games with runs of 25 and 24 yards, and he hit the over earlier this year against the Browns with a 21-yard run. I love these “longest rush” props as we only need one play to hit the over here.
While Jaylen Warren has seen a significant workload, Harris has made the most of his opportunities with the sixth-highest explosive rush rate among all running backs. The Browns have an elite run defense on a down to down basis, but they have allowed the second-higehst explosive run rate since Week 6, so I expect Harris to break a longer run at some point in this game.