In a week that seems to be chock-full of backup quarterback games, here’s another. The Pittsburgh Steelers will be starting Mitchell Trubisky while the Indianapolis Colts continue to ride with Gardner Minshew for a potentially pivotal game between fringe AFC playoff squads. With plenty of key performers in action for us to evaluate, let’s build a Steelers vs. Colts same game parlay for this Saturday afternoon (12/16/23) matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Same Game Parlay Picks
The Steelers and Colts are both 7-6 and soundly in the hunt for a Wild Card spot- in fact, they currently occupy the last two seeds in the AFC playoff field. Neither team has any margin for error, so this could be a very cagey, measured contest.
Leg 1: Indianapolis Colts Team Total Over 16.5 Points (-310)
Let’s set the bar relatively low and buy down the Colts’ team total to a very manageable 16.5. The Pittsburgh defense has proven to be a far cry from infallible in recent weeks, as it allowed 21 points to a Patriots team that had barely scored that many points in their previous three games combined, and 24 in a puzzling loss to the Cardinals. Both of those games were at home, so heading on the road to Indy, where the game will be played in an offense-friendly domed stadium, it could be another rough outing.
The Colts haven’t scored a ton of points in recent weeks, which has allowed us to get a useful price on this prop. This trend is due in part to the fact that they’ve been serially away from home; four of their past five contests have been on the road. They’ve scored exactly 27 points in each of their past three home games, and 38 in the one before that against a phenomenal Browns defense. In fact, they haven’t once been held below 20 points in Indianapolis this season, so this should be a fairly safe line.
Leg 2: Zack Moss Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While the attention this year has been on backup quarterbacks, Moss has had some positively iconic performances in relief of star runner Jonathan Taylor. With Taylor hurt once more, Moss has another chance to shine against a Steelers defense that does defend the run pretty well, but is definitely scarier against the pass. This could influence the Colts to be more ground-heavy than usual, which does not seem to be factored into Moss’ line.
It’s been a tough couple of games for Moss since the Taylor injury, but the script and matchup could both be in his favor this time around, making this a great buy-low spot. He was over this number in three of the first four games of the season, as Taylor was out, with the lone outlier being a 70-yard performance against the Rams. He’s shown a definite ability to put up this kind of volume, and with plenty of opportunities throughout a game in which the Colts should hold a lead, he could be in for a big day.
Leg 3: Mitchell Trubisky under 202.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Let’s start with the most basic evaluation possible; the eye test, which Trubisky has abjectly failed in a couple of relief outings behind Kenny Pickett. He’s had his fair share of tough outings with the Bears and Steelers in years past, but it’s hard to say he’s ever visibly been as bad as he’s been for Pittsburgh this year. Trubisky has had an incredibly hard time simply delivering balls to open receivers, and was barely able to scrape together any production against a horrendous Patriots pass defense.
He didn’t crack 200 yards in that game, and we shouldn’t expect him to do so now. This could be a really conservative game plan after his shortcomings in recent weeks, especially against an Indy defense that does much better against the pass than it does against the run. Pittsburgh’s play calling could feature a really heavy dose of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, either or both of whom are able to break out for a great performance, which would not leave much of an opportunity for Trubisky to rack up air yardage.
Even if he’s given plenty of pass attempts, it’s hard to imagine “Money Mitch” doing too much with them. Based on what we’ve seen this year. Given Pittsburgh’s level of receiving talent, there’s little reason to believe that he’s going to perform well against the league’s 11th-best pass defense as per DVOA.
Leg 4: Matt Gay Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+110)
What same game parlay would be complete without at least one defensive or special teams prop? This time, we’ll go with the latter, as we’re investing in Matt Gay to score over 7.5 points. More likely than not, the script we need for this would be a pair each of touchdowns and field goals, but three field goals would of course get the job done as well.
Pittsburgh’s red-zone defense is squarely within the league’s ten best by touchdown conversion percentage, as just 48.65% of opponents’ trips inside the Steelers’ 20-yard line have resulted in touchdowns. Pitted against a Colts offense that ranks a tad below average with about 53.5% of their red zone opportunities getting over the goal line, it’s likely that several Indy drives will be stalling out before the offense punches it in for six.
Gay didn’t hit any field goals last week, but he hit more than one in six of the prior eight weeks, and he hit one of two tries in both of the remaining games, so the opportunities have existed. This prop gives us a better payout than betting on Gay to hit over 1.5 field goals, and with our Colts team total of over 16.5, we’d better hope that they score at least a pair of touchdowns.
Same Game Parlay Card For Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Full parlay odds: +550
Colts Team Total Over 16.5 Points (-310)
Zack Moss Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Mitchell Trubisky Under 202.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Matt Gay Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+110)