Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Preview (10/30/2022): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart
The NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team, the Philadelphia Eagles (6-0) are heavy favorites to stay that way as they host the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) on Sunday, October 30 at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles are fresh off a bye after defeating their division rival Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in week six, while the Steelers are coming off a road loss to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football last week.
These teams have faced each other more than any other non-division opponent in each franchise’s history, so there is some good reason to call this an interstate rivalry game. The Eagles hold a 47-29-3 edge in the all-time record and have won the last nine matchups in Philadelphia dating back to 1966.
Let’s take a look at the odds, injuries and depth charts for this Steelers vs. Eagles matchup and see my picks and predictions for the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds
The Eagles opened as heavy favorites with a spread of -10.5 and moneyline odds around -500 at most sportsbooks. Those odds haven’t deterred bettors early in the week, as over 70% of the money is on the Eagles laying the points and over 80% is on the Eagles’ moneyline. If that trend continues, those lines could move further in the Eagles’ direction.
The over/under for this matchup opened at 44 and is currently 43.5 with early money leaning towards the over. That total is influenced by the matchup of the Steelers’ struggling offense (bottom six in points scored and yards gained) against the Eagles’ stout defense (top four in points and yards allowed per game), so those betting the over are expecting the Eagles’ top-four scoring offense to put up enough points to hit the over.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Eagles winning 27-16.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction
With a week off to self-scout after a torrid 6-0 start, and a cushy home matchup against one of the worst teams in the league so far this season, what can the Eagles do this week to show that they used the bye to get even better?
Amid all their success this season, their biggest issue has been their second-half offense. They have scored a whopping 112 points this season in the second quarter alone. That record-setting mark is more than four teams have scored all season – including the Steelers.
— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2022
However, the Eagles have scored only 35 points all season in the second half – 30th in the league on a points per game basis. They have a +85 scoring differential in the second quarter, and a -22 differential in the second half.
So if there is one thing Eagles coach Nick Sirianni surely wanted to work on during their bye week and come out and execute against the Steelers, it was that second-half scoring.
Sirianni said still haven't played a complete game. Asked what that will look like, he says: "We're up 20-3 at half, and we'd love to duplicate that in the 2nd half and win 40-6. But in the grand scheme of things, that's hard to do." #Eagles
— Martin Frank (@Mfranknfl) October 17, 2022
I could give you all sorts of other numbers about this Steelers vs. Eagles matchup and of course they would all slant heavily towards the Eagles (more on that below). But if you ask me what’s the one reason why the Eagles are going to cover 10.5 in this matchup, it would be the fact that second-half scoring will be a point of emphasis in this game.
The Eagles will jump out to a two-touchdown lead like they have done in every game this season, and this time they won’t let their foot off the gas. It won’t quite be the 40-6 score that Sirianni wants, but it will be close.
My prediction: Eagles win 38-16, Eagles cover, over 43.5
- The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
- The Eagles are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a bye week, and the Under is 16-7 in their last 23 games following a bye.
- The Under is 46-19-1 in the Steelers’ last 66 road games and 35-15-1 in their last 51 games in October.
- The Over is 7-1 in the Eagles’ last eight home games.
- The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams, and the Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers Injuries: CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Q – hamstring), CB Levi Wallace (Q – shoulder), DT Montravius Adams (Q – hamstring), DT Larry Ogunjobi (Q – knee), WR Steven Sims (Q – hamstring), TE Pat Freiermuth (Q – ankle), CB Josh Jackson (Q – groin), CB James Pierre (Q – hip), T.J. Watt (IR – pectoral)
Philadelphia Eagles Injuries: RT Lane Johnson (Q – Concussion), RG Isaac Seumalo (Q – ankle), DE Brandon Graham (Q – hamstring), LB Patrick Johnson (Q – concussion), CB Josh Jobe (Q – shoulder)
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles below.
Steelers QB Kenny Pickett vs. Eagles’ pass defense
In his first four career games (three starts), Pickett has shown flashes of why Pittsburgh made him the first quarterback drafted at 20th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. He is 4th in the league among qualifying passers with a 68.5% completion percentage. Last week against Miami, he engineered two long drives in the fourth quarter to give his team a chance to score a game-winning touchdown, but both of those drives ended with interceptions including one in the endzone.
Kenny Pickett not gonna be able to sleep tonight. pic.twitter.com/xJBCiuyPkJ
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 24, 2022
Turnovers have been a problem for Pickett, who has thrown seven interceptions in 127 pass attempts (5.5%, 2nd in the league), although some of those interceptions were not his fault. Still, against an Eagles defense with a league-leading 14 takeaways including nine interceptions, Pickett has to do a better job of protecting the ball if the Steelers want to have a chance in this game.
The Eagles also allow the 5th-fewest passing yards per game in the league (188), which is remarkable considering how often they have played with a big lead. Pickett will likely need to challenge Eagles cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry in this game, and that could spell trouble for the turnover-prone QB.
Steelers’ offensive line vs. Eagles’ pass rush
The Steelers can help Pickett protect the ball by protecting him, but that will be a tall task against an Eagles’ pass rush that generates pressure at the sixth-highest rate in the league (25.2% of opponent passing downs). The Eagles also bolstered their pass-rushing unit this week by trading with the Chicago Bears for veteran edge rusher Robert Quinn, though it’s unknown if Quinn will play in this game.
The Steelers’ offensive line is not what it used to be, especially on paper, but it has performed reasonably well this season, allowing pressure on 29.2% of its dropbacks through week six (8th in the league). The unit that wins this battle on the line of scrimmage will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
Eagles’ offensive line vs. Steelers’ defensive front
The Eagles have the best offensive line in the league, and coming off a bye week they appear to be recovered from several nagging injuries. As of Wednesday afternoon, RT Lane Johnson is still in concussion protocol but is expected to play. Assuming he does, all five starters on the O-line should be ready to go for this game. With 2021 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt on injured reserve since week one, the Steelers have struggled to generate pressure, ranking 30th in pressure rate this season.
The Eagles have a definite advantage on the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball. That should allow them not only to give Jalen Hurts plenty of time to find his receivers, but also to establish the run with their sixth-ranked rushing offense against the Steelers’ 18th-ranked rushing defense. The Eagles lead the league in rushing attempts (37.5 per game) and in rushing touchdowns with 13, led by Jalen Hurts’ six (first among QBs, tied for second overall). The Steelers have not allowed a rushing touchdown by an opposing QB yet this season, but that seems likely to change this week.
Eagles’ wide receivers vs. Steelers’ secondary
The Steelers’ secondary has struggled to slow down opposing wide receivers this year, and one of their top cornerbacks, Ahkello Witherspoon, is questionable with a nagging hamstring injury. The Steelers are 29th against the pass this season and give up the most yards in the league to wide receivers (209.6 per game).
The Eagles’ dynamic wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are each in the top 20 among wide receivers in both catches and receiving yards per game. Among wide receivers averaging at least five targets per game, only three receivers catch the ball at a higher rate than Smith.
This should be a big mismatch in this game that the Eagles can exploit to make big plays and jump out to a big lead.