Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (12/30/22)

Don’t let a Friday full of football distract you from the fact that we have an electric basketball slate on deck. To cap off that slate, we have the always entertaining Golden State Warriors hosting the Damian Lillard led Trail Blazers. Even without Steph Curry the Warriors have been making do with Jordan Poole running the show. Can they continue to tread water in Curry’s absence against the high-powered Trail Blazers?

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

Oddsmakers don’t think so as they opened the Warriors as a +4 underdog. Bettors are in disagreement, backing the Warriors down to as low as +2.5 in some shops. Even without Curry, this offensive has managed to maintain competitive production with Jordan Poole getting more time out on the court. The perimeter efficiency dipped as expected, but the offense has continued to click as a whole with Poole bringing a dynamic scoring ability.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored in bunches as oddsmakers opened the total as high as 230.5. Bettors believe the same, hitting the over up to as high as 232.5. This comes as little surprise as two of the more explosive offenses are going to duel. Damian Lillard is one of the most electric scorers in the NBA and commands defensive attention. The Warriors still field multiple scoring threats, forcing defenses to scramble in covering all their open looks.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

The Pick: Golden State Warriors +3

In what has been one of the more head scratching themes of the season, I am backing the Warriors to cover at home at any number higher than +2. While I am certainly not a trends guy myself, I can’t help but solely focus on the Warriors home and away splits. The Warriors this season are 15-2 at home and 3-16 while on the road.

They have managed to not skip a beat in Curry’s absence, still dulling out a lethal offense that is capable of stretching out any defense. This has been predicated on Poole’s success as a full time starter, ticking his points per game up to 27.5 while nearly converting 3.0 threes per game. We may witness one of the more electric point guard duels in basketball as Lillard is one of the most lethal dual threat scorers in the NBA with an unlimited range and driving ability.

Other than Lillard, the Blazers rely on the scoring production of Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant before taking a drastic drop off. This may not bode well for them as each player draws a tough defensive assignment with Draymond picking up Grant and Klay getting Simons. Draymond has been a mainstay as one of the best defenders in the league while Klay is sneakily a great defender in his own right.

Betting Trends

• Warriors are 50-23-3 ATS in their last 76 home games
• Trail Blazers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on 3 or more days rest
• Trail Blazers are 12-26 ATS in the last 38 meetings at Golden State

Key Matchups

With Poole and Lillard expected to put on a show, how does the battle of secondary scoring pan out?

Klay Thompson vs Anfernee Simons

It wasn’t an easy start for Klay Thompson with his scoring averages dipping hard to start the season. But it’s a long season and Klay has already started to round back into form. His scoring production is crucial for the Warriors success as he is one of the few consistent scoring options for their offense.

While he is normally known as a scoring threat, he actually has been an above average defender in the course of his career. His defense will be crucial in this one as Anfernee Simons has taken a drastic leap in production as the Blazers number two man in the offense.

Verdict

Back the eye-opening Warriors trend by taking them at +2.5 or better in what will be a thrilling offensive matchup.

Portland Trail Blazers Starting Lineup

PG: Damian Lillard
SG: Anfernee Simons
SF: Josh Hart
PF: Jerami Grant
C: Jusuf Nurkic

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups

PG: Jordan Poole
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Anthony Lamb
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Portland Trail Blazers Injuries: Greg Brown III (O), Keon Johnson (O), Jusuf Nurkic (P), Justise Winslow (O), Nassir Little (O), Gary Payton II (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Steph Curry (O), Donte DiVincenzo (P), JaMychal Green (O), Draymond Green (P)