Providence vs Xavier: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/26/22)
Contents
Providence vs Xavier Betting Odds
Surprisingly, Providence is still atop the Big East conference in late January. The Friars are 6-1 in conference play with impressive victories over UConn, Seton Hall, and St. John’s.
Meanwhile, the Musketeers are sitting at just 4-3 in conference play after losing by double digits at Marquette. However, the other two losses both came to Villanova, so the conference schedule can only get easier for Xavier going forward.
But does that start tonight against Providence? Because Ed Cooley will have his team prepared for this matchup.
Providence Friars Odds
I love Providence this year.
The Friars love to muck games up. They’ll play slow (275th in tempo), defend the interior (25th in 2-point defense), and get to the line (seventh in free-throw rate).
Providence also has some length, particularly at the 2-through-4. As such, Providence can switch almost everything on the interior, and it ranks very highly in many of those defensive metrics.
For example, the Friars rank:
- In the 85th percentile in pick-and-roll PPP allowed
- In the 88th percentile in cutting PPP allowed
- In the 93rd percentile in hand-off PPP allowed
- In the 86th percentile in post-up PPP allowed
All in all, the Friars rank in the 83rd percentile in half-court PPP allowed.
Coach Cooley’s style of play is perfect to back as underdogs. The Friars are 5-1 against the spread when catching points this season, and they’re 4-1 against the spread on the road.
Whenever Providence is an underdog, I’m looking their way.
Xavier Musketeers Odds
Like Providence, I like Xavier as well. There’s something about Big East basketball that is enticing this season.
Xavier is imposing. Point guard Paul Scruggs is 6-foot-5 and center Jack Nunge is 7-foot-0. Xavier is big, scary, and top-30 nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
It’s worth talking about Nunge, who has elevated his play to another level after transferring from Iowa. He’s currently averaging 12.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game while shooting over 51% from the field – he leads the team in all three stats.
He isn’t perfect and has been rather inefficient from deep, but look at what Nunge can do offensively and defensively:
Image credit: CBB Analytics
Nunge is an interior monster and essentially to what Xavier does on both sides of the floor.
However, it’s a true team effort for Xavier, which has four players that average 11 points per game. Xavier is most efficient in pick-and-roll and post-up situations, speaking to their imposing interior presence.
Providence vs Xavier Prediction and Pick
My pick: Providence +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
As you could likely tell throughout the reading of this article, I love Providence in this spot.
Defensively, Providence matches up perfectly with Xavier. Xavier will try and get the ball into the interior and get fouled a lot, but Providence will not allow them to do so. There’s a chance Xavier gets hot from deep, but the team is only 150th in 3-point rate and 172nd in 3-point shooting.
Moreover, coach Cooley is great in this spot. I mentioned how Providence has done on the road and as an underdog this season, but he’s a cool 82-56-2 against the spread as a road dog in his career. That’s a 59% clip for a 16% ROI.
Wednesday night, coach Cooley and his Friars are catching over eight on the road against a conference opponent. I can’t resist betting Providence in this spot and would take them all the way down to +7.
