Purdue vs Indiana: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/20/22)

Purdue vs Indiana Betting Odds

Purdue just extended its record to 15-2 this season after a gutsy, double-overtime road win over Illinois. The Boilermakers are ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll and are ranked No. 4 in KenPom.

Meanwhile, Indiana is 4-3 in Big Ten play and trending up with a 13-4 record. The Hoosiers are right on the edge of being ranked, and a home win here would help achieve that goal.

However, Indiana opened as a short, 2.5-point home dog. And unfortunately for Hoosier backers, the line keeps moving towards the Boilermakers.

But should we buyback on Indiana at +3.5?

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

The win over Illinois was huge. The Fighting Illini were close to running away with the Big Ten regular-season title. But Matt Painter proved he’s still the guy to beat in the conference.

The Boilermakers continue to roll on offense. Following a 96-point performance in Champaign, Purdue paces the nation in offensive efficiency. That includes being fifth in effective field goal percentage (58.5%) and fourth in points per possession (1.033).

Everyone knows what Purdue does by now. The Boilermakers have dangerous offensive weapons at every position and can attack you from every different angle.

However, let’s key in on one of those weapons: Sasha Stefanovic.

https://twitter.com/randlerant/status/1483167628713926656?s=21

Stefanovic is maybe the Boilermakers most important player. He’s one of the best 3-and-D guys in the nation and is deadly spotting up. After scoring over 1.2 points per possession in spot-up situations last year, he’s up to 1.3 points per possession this year.

Stefanovic rounds out the Boilermaker roster so well. Everyone else on the roster can attack in isolation, and all those guys are great passers.

So, Purdue’s fourth offensive option is a 40% 3-point shooter which every player on the roster can find with ease.

It’s beautiful to watch Purdue play basketball.

The defense has been weak – at least by Big Ten standards. Dominant, ball-heavy playmakers can rip apart the perimeter defense because Purdue doesn’t ball-pressure well and is terrible defending the pick-and-roll.

For example, Johnny Davis and Brad Davison. In the Boilermakers’ most-recent loss, those two Badgers combined for 52 points, 17 rebounds, and six assists.

That is Purdue’s biggest weakness, and that’s how you beat them.

Indiana Betting Odds

Indiana’s defense is quietly becoming one of the best in the nation.

The Hoosiers have snuck up to 12th nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage and are allowing less than 0.8 points per possession in the half-court.

However, it’s clear that – like everything with Indiana – the defense starts in the frontcourt. Trayce-Jackson Davis is one of the best two-way big men in the nation, and he’s backed up by a great interior defender in Race Thompson and a solid shooter in Miller Kopp.

As a result, the Hoosiers are 18th nationally in block rate and sixth in post-up points per possession allowed.

And, like the Archie Miller-led teams before, the guard play Bloomington is a huge problem.

Xavier Johnson has a high assist rate but just a 100.7 ORtg. His backcourt partner, Rob Phinisee, has just an 81.7 ORtg.

Bad guard play is a death sentence in March. So, I think the ceiling for this team is rather low for how good they’re performing.

Purdue vs Indiana Prediction and Pick

My pick: Purdue -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Meanwhile, as mentioned, Purdue’s biggest weakness is perimeter defense. There’s no way for Indiana to take advantage of that.

The Hoosiers should neutralize Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, but Jaden Ivey is going to have a field day.

Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are just average in spot-up defense. And Stefanovic should be able to take advantage of that.

I’ll be sided with the sharp money on Purdue and taking the Boilermakers up to -4.