Purdue vs Iowa: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/27/22)

Purdue vs Iowa Betting Odds

Another Big Ten battle commences Thursday night, as the 16-3 Purdue Boilermakers will travel to Iowa City to pay the 14-5 Iowa Hawkeyes.

These two have slipped a bit in conference play. At 5-3, Purdue has dropped games to Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Iowa Started the Big Ten season by losing its first two games but is on a 4-2 run since (interestingly, the Hawkeyes also lost to Rutgers).

These are two of the most electric offenses in the country. Purdue paces the nation in offensive efficiency while Iowa is seventh. Both are also top-five nationally in points per game.

As a result, this total is up over 158. That means we’re in for a very entertaining game.

Purdue is likely to slip out of the top-10 in the AP Poll with a loss here. Meanwhile, Iowa is no longer ranked.

Both are hungry for a win, but who has the edge in Iowa City?

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue has been caught slipping. But there’s one common theme in Boilermakers’ three losses:

Dominant, ball-heavy players take advantage of Purdue’s defense.

Purdue is 334th in defensive turnover rate and 322nd in defensive steal rate. They’re also sub-300 in pick-and-roll points per possession allowed (.829).

It’s clear that great backcourts – or point-forwards like Ron Harper Jr. – can exploit Jaden Ivey and Eric Hunter, even when the Purdue guards are lengthier.

Harper scoring 30 in the Purdue loss wasn’t a big surprise. Johnny Davis and Brad Davison dominating Purdue in the Wisconsin loss wasn’t a big surprise either.

The Indiana loss, however, was very surprising. Xavier Johnson and Rob Phinisee constitute a bad Big Ten backcourt, yet those two shredded Purdue for 38 combined points. I expected Ivey to have a field day in that matchup. Instead, he and his backcourt mates were useless on the defensive end.

Then again, that was a very tough spot for Purdue. They were on the second night of a two-game road trip after a double-overtime win in Champaign earlier that week. It’s always tough to play in Bloomington. They were 3.5-point road dogs.

But the fact remains: There is a blueprint to beat the Boilermakers. And despite how much they can score – which is a lot and in very efficient numbers – opposing guards will often score more.

Purdue’s defense has now dropped to 65th in defensive efficiency.

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Odds

Iowa’s offense is elite. With Keegan Murray seamlessly sliding into the Luka Garza role, the Hawkeyes offense hasn’t lost a step from the past few seasons.

In 19 individual games this season, Iowa has posted:

• 1.4+ points per possession three times
• 1.3-1.4 points per possession two times
• 1.2-1.3 points per possession five times
• 1.1-1.2 points per possession four times

The only dud on Iowa’s resume is their game against Rutgers. Iowa went in and shot 11-for-34 (32%) from inside the arc and 6-for-27 (22%) from beyond the arc. That’s just an off night, and it resulted in one of Iowa’s five losses.

However, the Hawkeyes did struggle against Purdue last time out. But that’s because Keegan Murray wasn’t in the lineup, and Jordan Bohannon didn’t get many opportunities himself.

Iowa plays super-fast but under control, ranking ninth in average offensive possession length and third in offensive turnover rate. The veteran backcourt knows Fran McCaffery’s offense so well, and Iowa is extremely disciplined on the offensive end as a result.

Like most years, the Iowa defense isn’t very good. The Hawkeyes barely break the top-100 in defensive efficiency, and they barely break the top-200 in points allowed per game.

Purdue vs Iowa Prediction and Pick

My pick: Under 158.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

The last two times these two faced off, the total went way under this number. Including earlier this season when the total finished at 147 in a seven-point Purdue victory.

I think Murray is going to have trouble scoring against such a dominant Purdue interior. While the Purdue perimeter defense is exploitable, Trevion Williams and Zach Edey are much tougher to score on.

Meanwhile, the Iowa backcourt is very solid. But they aren’t high-enough volume scorers to take advantage of the Boilermakers’ primary weakness.

Purdue shouldn’t have an issue slicing through the Iowa defense. But with a total approaching 160, everything needs to go right offensively for that to hit.

This game should be played in the low-to-mid 70s, and I’d take the under at anything better than 156.