Purdue vs Michigan: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/10/22)

Purdue vs Michigan Betting Odds

Purdue claimed a share of first place in the Big Ten with a dominant victory over Illinois Monday night. There are now three teams in the conference sitting at 10-3, all with a chance to take home the regular-season title.

Michigan is simply fighting for a shot at the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are 12-9 overall and 6-5 in conference play, but they are currently projected to miss the cut on Selection Sunday. Juwan Howard and Co. may have to win the conference tournament to get into the Big Dance.

However, a home win over Purdue would definitely help the Michigan cause. The Wolverines are catching only three at home, meaning Vegas believes this faulty team has a chance.

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue is rolling right now.

The Boilermakers are winners of six straight, having covered in four of those. Matt Painter’s squad has also put itself right back into the Big Ten regular-season title race.

The defensive issues are still there. The best defensive performance of this recent win streak was against Illinois, with the Boilermakers holding the Illini to 1.03 points per possession. However, the Illini also shot just 8-for-26 from deep in the contest.

Dominant guards will run over the perimeter defense, and it’s easy to put together dribble penetration. Devante Jones and Hunter Dickinson ran the pick-and-roll and the pick-and-pop endlessly in the last game against Purdue, and Purdue was pretty soft defensively in those sets.

The key perimeter defender is clearly Eric Hunter Jr., who carries the team defensively at times. And when he’s off the court, things can get ugly.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

It’s why Michigan was able to hang around the last contest between those two despite looking like the inferior team.

That’s another thing that worries me about Purdue – the Boilermakers can take the foot off the gas. I don’t like betting teams that do that, especially in March when the stakes are higher and nothing is impossible.
Offensively, this team is lights out. Nearly impossible to stop. But great offense doesn’t always equate to Final Four finishes.

Michigan Wolverines Odds

Right when Michigan was going to turn the corner, the Wolverines dropped another two games against major conference rivals.

Michigan is now 1-5 in Quad 1 opportunities this season, dropping to 47th in the NET rankings.

The defense is horrendous. In conference-only play, Michigan is 11th in defensive efficiency and 12th in defensive effective field goal percentage (52.2%). On the season, Michigan is 251st in half-court points per possession allowed (.882) – sandwiched between North Carolina A&T and Hofstra.

Coach Howard had no answers in the last game playing Purdue. Jaden Ivey ripped the team apart every which way, while Trevion Williams and Zach Edey combined for 32 points on the interior. Purdue finished the game with 1.27 points per possession.

Purdue regularly rips apart opposing defenses – Purdue is averaging 1.28 points per possession over the last six games – but I was embarrassed for Michigan. The defense last year was astounding, and that unit led Michigan to a Big Ten regular-season title and an Elite Eight appearance.

The wing play is inconsistent. Caleb Houstan continues to disappoint despite flashing brilliance at times. Moussa Diabate is a real game-changer and will be astounding if he doesn’t leave in the off-season.

Diabate is also an engine. He defends with ferocity and always hits the boards hard. He’s easily the most effective defender in the Michigan lineup.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

However, the offense still revolves around Hunter Dickinson, who has averaged 25 points over his last three games.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

Purdue vs Michigan Prediction and Pick

My pick: Purdue -3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Michigan managed to stay within the number last time around – but the spread opened at 11 and closed at 9.5.

This spread is too small for Purdue.

Especially at home, where the Wolverines have covered the number in just five of their 12 home opportunities.

The Purdue offense will slice through Michigan’s defense like a hot knife through butter. Michigan has shown no emotion on defense and is playing the best offense in the nation – for the second time in five days.

Purdue might not win by 25, but the Boilermakers will cruise past this low number.