Purdue vs. Michigan: Prediction & Odds (11/4/23)

On Saturday, #2 Michigan hosts Purdue with a spread of 32.5 points favoring the home team. In this article, find a full breakdown of the matchup and the latest betting odds. In addition, find our Purdue vs. Michigan best bet which is Michigan -32.5.

Purdue Boilermakers Vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction

Michigan is off to an 8-0 start, and it’s fair if you’re still a bit skeptical – they’ve faced the 112th-ranked schedule so far this season per ESPN’s FPI. We probably won’t learn much more about this team this week as they face Purdue, who is ranked 95th in FPI. This is their last easy matchup before facing Penn State and Ohio State in two of the final three weeks of the season.

There could be a bit of a look ahead factor here for the Wolverines given their big matchups on the horizon, but it shouldn’t matter given the caliber of opponent they are facing. Let’s start with Purdue’s offense. They brought in former Texas quarterback Hudson Card in the transfer portal, and he has been absolutely dreadful.

Card is completing just 58.9% of his passes this season with a putrid 6.1 yards per attempt, and he had four turnover-worthy plays last week. It doesn’t help that the Boilermakers can’t run the ball at all – they rank 119th in rushing EPA per play. It’s difficult to envision them having any sort of consistent offensive success against Michigan’s top ranked defense by EPA.

Purdue’s defense, meanwhile, is atrocious against the pass. They rank dead last in PFF’s team coverage grades while ranking 85th in EPA per pass allowed. This week, they face their toughest test of the season against Michigan’s passing offense that leads the country in success rate. J.J. McCarthy is enjoying a Heisman caliber season that should continue.

This might be the rematch of the Big Ten championship from last season, but that game wasn’t close and I don’t expect this one to be either. While Michigan’s schedule has been easy, they’ve won their five conference games by an average of over 40 points per game. Despite the look ahead factor, I expect another dominant win for the Wolverines.

Purdue Vs. Michigan Prediction: Michigan -32.5

Purdue Vs. Michigan Best Odds

The spread for this game is sitting at 32.5 points favoring the home Michigan Wolverines, which is a fascinating number given it’s not a key football number. The total sits at 52.5 points, which leads to an implied score of around 42-10.

Purdue Vs. Michigan Key Matchups

While this game between Purdue and Michigan is expected to be very lopsided, there are some interesting matchups to make note of. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that will determine the outcome of this game.

J.J. McCarthy Vs. Purdue’s Pass Defense

After a sophomore season that presented some ups and downs, J.J. McCarthy has ascended into being one of the best quarterbacks in the country in his second year as a starter. McCarthy has continued to climb the Heisman odds board with 18 touchdowns to three interceptions while his 10.6 yards per attempt rank third in the country per PFF.

McCarthy’s top receiver has been Roman Wilson, who leads the team with 27 catches for 446 yards and ten touchdowns. New Purdue head coach Ryan Walters orchestrated one of the best defenses in the country last season at Illinois, but he hasn’t found the same success now that he isn’t coaching a group of future NFL talents.

All 4 of JJ McCarthy’s TD passes against MSU pic.twitter.com/nkDNha2mlK

— James T. Yoder (@JamesYoder) October 25, 2023

Purdue’s Offensive Line Vs. Michigan’s Pass Rush

It hasn’t helped Hudson Card whatsoever that the Purdue offensive line is one of the worst in the country. The Boilermakers rank 110th in havoc allowed this season and Card has been pressured on 36.3% of his dropbacks. Starting offensive lineman Mahamane Moussa is out for the year, further hurting the situation.

Michigan has a dominant pass rush that will put a ton of pressure on Card in this game. Coastal Carolina transfer Josaiah Stewart has been as advertised, leading the team with 16 pressures and four sacks, while sophomore Derrick Moore is enjoying a breakout season with 15 pressures. Jaylen Harrell, Mason Graham, and Braiden McGregor round out the team’s five players with double digit pressures per PFF.

Michigan’s Josaiah Stewart flashing some major speed-to-power for the third down sack.

The Coastal Carolina transfer is a rising prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft class. pic.twitter.com/4yqep4c7s9

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) October 8, 2023

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