Purdue vs Michigan State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/26/22)

Purdue vs Michigan State Betting Odds

This is going to be good.

In the pre-season, this was a game everyone had circled. The only time that Matt Painter and Tom Izzo would meet in the regular season, and so close to March!

Too bad Sparty has been dead weight recently.

Michigan State has lost five of its last six games and has fallen to 9-7 in Big Ten play. Moreover, Izzo is dangerously close to being on the bubble.

Meanwhile, Purdue is tied atop the Big Ten standings with Wisconsin, and the two are a game up on Illinois. The regular-season race is coming down to the wire, and Purdue is in the thick of it.

Considering how Michigan State has played recently, this should be a Boilermaker bloodbath. But is this set up as a good buy-low spot for Sparty?

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue keeps trucking along. The offense is so overpowering and so consistent that Purdue never suffers a losing streak.

Purdue has yet to lose back-to-back games this season, and the Boilermakers have at least three wins staggered in-between their four losses.

Purdue still cannot defend a ball-screen, however. Painter refuses to pressure the ball against opposing ball-handlers, as big wings like Johnny Davis and savvy ball-handlers like Andre Curbelo can chop up the Purdue perimeter defense.

But, again, it hasn’t mattered. Purdue is first nationally in offensive efficiency, including third in effective field goal percentage and second in 3-point percentage. The Boilermakers make every shot.

It’s easy when you have a duo of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey tearing up the post – both are also top-tier rebounders. Meanwhile, Jaden Ivey can explode past any guard, and Sasha Stefanovic is the smoothest shooter in college hoops.

It’s pretty much Final Four or bust for the Boilermakers, but it feels like this team could be in trouble in the tournament. How are you supposed to win a championship when you can’t guard the pick-and-roll?

Michigan State Spartans Odds

Where does Michigan State stand after this recent stretch of games?

Well, the Spartans should still make the tournament, but the team is dropping fast. Sparty is down to a seven seed and is now ranked below in-state rival Michigan in the NET.

A home win over Purdue would change all of that. And we know how Izzo performs in these situations.

But Painter has gotten the best of Izzo recently. Purdue is 6-3 straight up and 8-1 against the spread vs. Michigan State dating back to 2016. Purdue has also won and covered in four straight games against Michigan State.

So, with all the cards stacked against Sparty, how can the team get back on track?

It needs to start on the defensive end. The Spartans have given up over 1.20 points per possession in two straight games and three out of the last five.

Defense is the cornerstone of Michigan State, wherein Marcus Bingham Jr. patrols the post and the one-through-four switch everything else aggressively – Sparty stands between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-8 at those positions.

But lately, the whole team has been getting shredded. Opponents have been hot from 3-point range, and there might be some positive regression coming there, but it won’t be enough to get Sparty back on track.

Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction and Pick

My Pick: Michigan State +4 (-120 at PointsBet)

This line will likely move down by the time this is posted. Try to grab Sparty at +3 or better.

But either way, this is a must-win, desperation spot for Michigan State.

Meanwhile, Purdue is maybe looking ahead to a Tuesday-night battle with Wisconsin – a game that will likely decide the Big Ten regular-season title. We could catch Matt Painter and co. sleeping in this game.

It’ll come down to AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker slicing and dicing a weak Purdue perimeter defense. Both guards are top-10 nationally in assist rate, and that could spell trouble for Purdue’s ball-screen defense.

I think Sparty wins this game, but I’m happy to grab the points with Izzo as a home dog.