Purdue vs Northwestern: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/16/22)

Purdue vs Northwestern Betting Odds

In their way will be Northwestern, which has quietly won three of its last four conference games.

Surprisingly, Purdue isn’t laying too many points in this game. But does that make the Boilermakers an auto-bet?

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue just had a tough two-game stretch.

Not only did the Boilermakers get blown out in Ann Arbor, but they also almost lost to Maryland at home. These were the two lowest points per possession marks of Purdue’s season, averaging .93 in both games.

Hanging on to beat Maryland was huge because Purdue’s hopes for a No. 1 seed likely die if the team loses back-to-back games against middling Big Ten teams.

I have faith in Purdue’s offense bouncing back. The three-headed monster of Zach Edey, Trevion Williams, and Jaden Ivey are too strong to stop.

However, the defense will continue to be an issue. Specifically, the perimeter defense, where opponents can just dribble-drive and ball-screen the Boilermakers to death.

Luckily, Purdue is playing a team Wednesday that isn’t strong in the backcourt.

Northwestern Wildcats Odds

Boo Buie is the Northwestern backcourt. He’s the team’s highest-usage player and leads the team in scoring (15.1 points per game) and assists (4.7 assists per game). The Wildcats are also one of the best teams in the nation in offensive turnover rate thanks to his contributions.

However, most of the contributions come from the front court. Chase Audige, Pete Nance, and Ryan Young combine for over 35 points per game, and Nance is even shooting over 40% from 3 as a stretch center.

Teams continue to shoot the lights out against Northwestern. Despite allowing over a 40% 3-point rate, the Wildcats are sub-260 in 3-point defense and 11th in the Big Ten in conference-only play.

I think we’ll see that number regress. ShotQuality’s metrics project a ton of positive shooting regression for Northwestern, based on the quality of shots the Wildcats take and allow.

Purdue vs Northwestern Predictions and Pick

My pick: Under 146.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

It’s hard betting a Purdue under, as the offense is deadly, and the team is 16-10 to the over this season. However, the Purdue offense has looked off in the last two games and I don’t see much positive shooting regression coming from them.

Meanwhile, Northwestern has gone under in two straight games themselves.

Throw in that these two teams are 4-1 to the under in the last five matchups, and I think 146.5 is a tad higher than it should be.

I don’t love either side in this game. At only five points, I would lean towards Purdue bouncing back and covering the number. But the market is already moving the other way, with the number opening at 5.5.

But that brings me back to the under, which has hit at nearly a 55% clip in the Big Ten since 2006.

So, considering the trends and that I don’t love either side, I feel fairly confident in this game finishing in the high 60s or low 70s.