Purdue Vs. Ohio State Odds, Picks, Predictions NCAAB (1/5/23)

We have an incredible Big Ten matchup on deck as the two most efficient teams per Kenpom battle it out as the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Purdue Boilermakers. While Purdue was expected to maintain an elite status within the conference, Ohio State has been a relative surprise. This has been in large part of their revitalized offense, a unit that will give the Boilermakers fits. Can Ohio State secure the massive win on their home court?

Purdue Vs. Ohio State Odds

Oddsmakers believe so as they opened the Buckeyes as a -1.5 favorite. Bettors slightly disagree, backing the Boilermakers down to +1 as of writing. This comes as a slight surprise as the Buckeyes possess an offensive identity that can exploit Purdue’s defense. Even when lacking size to contend with Zach Edey, Ohio State is more than capable of positioning him out of his comfort zone and use that for high quality looks at the rim.

Speaking of high quality looks at the rim, oddsmakers believe points will be scored in bunches as they opened the total at 141. Bettors have been neutral since the open, failing to nudge it off of the current number. This is heavily predicated on Ohio State’s ability to score at an efficient rate with Zach Edey manning the middle. His mountain of a stature is a true game changer as he wipes away looks at the rim which leads to stalled out possessions.

Purdue Vs. Ohio State Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Wait on Ohio State spread

This is going to be an absolute electric matchup. One that I believe Ohio State will pull away with in the end. With that said, the line movement is very interesting as early indication has bettors backing Purdue with their number already dropping a half point. This gives me pause for now as I will wait to see if this continues to drop before taking the other side by backing Ohio State before tipoff.

While they have remained competitive over the past few years, they took a serious leap in production as one of the best teams in their own conference. Not even in their own conference, but nearly as a serious National Championship contender. A brunt of their success can be attributed to their offense, a unit that ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per Kenpom.

They can burn you from multiple positions with four OSU players in double digit scoring while they play nine players meaningful minutes. This offensive production comes from both the perimeter and interior, forcing opposing defenses to constantly scramble and respect both aspects. A feat that is easier said than done.

The perimeter play will be more vital than ever as the Buckeyes will be hard pressed to find consistent scoring success in the interior with Zach Edey hovering around there. This bodes well for the Buckeyes as they average nearly 38% from deep, as well as cleaning up the glass for second chance points when their deep looks don’t fall.

Second chance opportunities will be more vital than ever as that means they are winning the positional battle and putting Edey in uncomfortable positions. Should they use those second chance interior looks for potential foul trouble and get Edey off the floor, then Ohio State’s offense should be able to feast with high quality looks at the rim.

Purdue Vs. Ohio State Key Matchups

Can Ohio State limit the Purdue size mismatch in the interior?

Ohio State interior defense vs Zach Edey

While Ohio State fields one of the best offenses in the nation, it’s their defense that holds them back from being a true championship contender. Their defense currently ranks 66 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom.

Purdue is no scoring slouch themselves, ranking fifth in AdjO and is captained by their star big man down low in Zach Edey. He has catapulted as the main source of scoring, averaging 21.7 points per game. He may be in for another good outing as Ohio State’s main weakness is their lack of size.

To combat this, Ohio State will need to collapse down and generate Havoc on the big man. As soon as he puts the ball on the ground, there should be a help man hitting the floor to make him uncomfortable. This leaves the perimeter open, but Purdue has been relatively weak with their three-point shooting. 

Verdict

While I like Ohio State to pull this one out in what would be a huge win for the Buckeyes, I will wait to see if the spread continues to move against me and take them at their highest pregame point.