Raiders Vs. Bears NFL Player Props & Picks (10/22/23)
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It’s going to be a strange one at Soldier Field, with both starting quarterbacks likely to miss this game between the Oakland Raiders and Chicago Bears. With that uncertainty in mind, let’s check out some Raiders vs. Bears player props, ad Tyson Bagent looks to make his starting debut with DJ Moore to help him to a strong performance
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The starting quarterbacks are up in the air, but this game could still be filled with offense, let’s take a look at some players who could still have a big day.
DJ Moore Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110 BetMGM)
If this number feels ridiculously low, that’s partly because it is, but it’s also because the value proposition has changed due to the injury to Justin Fields’s throwing hand. The first thing we should note is that Fields has not been officially ruled out yet and there’s a small chance he could play Sunday, which would give this play an enormous amount of value. But even if the Ohio State alum doesn’t end up making it onto the field, there’s plenty of reason to bet this over.
For starters, let’s look at what Moore has achieved with Fields at the helm this year. It would be one thing if this number was approximately average for him as far as his best catch in each game, and he had bounced above and below it with the Bears’ top QB, but that is not the case. His longest catch on opening day against the Packers was 14 yards, and in the five games since then, he’s ripped right through this number each time out.
Moore is one of the league’s best downfield threats, whoever’s throwing him the football. Even last year with the hapless Panthers, he averaged 14.1 yards per catch on an average depth of target of 14 yards on the dot. This year, those numbers are up to 18.2 and 14.4, but it’s clear that Fields isn’t close to the full reason for his big play prowess. This year, he’s caught nine passes 20 or more yards downfield, second only to the genuinely incomparable Tyreek Hill.
If Fields plays, great; Moore will have one of the best deep-ball passers in the league throwing him the ball, Fields has a league-best six touchdowns on deep passes, and he’s also tied for the lead with 13 such completions on just 26 tosses. If not, the Bears offense will skew even more pass-heavy, with the dynamic rushing threat of Fields taken away.
This isn’t exactly going to be the Bears or Commanders game again for Moore, but missing Fields won’t stop him from finding at least one chunk play. In fact, Moore registered catches of 18 and 24 yards from Bagent after the rookie subbed on for a few drives after the Fields injury, so the pair has already shown an ability to link up for a downfield gainer.
Tyson Bagent 200+ Passing Yards (+110 BetMGM)
With a rapport already established with Moore, Bagent has every chance to have a nice starting debut, should Fields be ruled out and he be given the chance. It’s important to note that this bet would be voided if Fields does indeed play the whole game, so you’re not at risk in that regard.
This one isn’t all about Bagent, who did show some positive flashes on a nice touchdown drive late in the Vikings game after subbing in. Overall, he completed 10 of 14 passes in an acceptable NFL debut, given the surprise, unplanned nature of his appearance.
Bagent will not be facing a particularly tough opponent for his first start, as the Raiders rank 25th in EPA against the pass. The team blitzes at a league-average rate, but they’re 28th in applying pressure, so behind a Bears offensive line that is beginning to show signs of life, Bagent should have the opportunity to settle in without too many black and white jerseys in his face.
And let’s also remind ourselves that while the health of Fields is a concern for Chicago, the running back room isn’t exactly in great shape either. Khalil Herbert is on the IR, and Roschon Johnson is probably going to go on Sunday, but he’ll be at less than 100% when he does so. D’Onta Foreman was pretty good against the Vikings, but Chicago’s run game takes a clear hit without their top backs.
With the receiving skill group more or less intact, look for him to have a good amount of volume against this Vegas team for Bagent, the all-time NCAA leader with 159 career passing touchdowns, and a DII-best 17,034 yards.
Daniel Carlson Under 1.5 Field Goals (-130 BetMGM)
This isn’t an indictment on Carlson, the reigning first-team All Pro kicker and consistently one of the NFL’s very best. It’s just a statement about game script given this Chicago defense.
The Bears defense is second to last in defensive red zone efficiency, as opponents have scored touchdowns on 78.95% of their trips inside the 20. They’re also 31st in pass defense EPA, and 30th in DVOA for the category, so it’s not hard to imagine the Raiders punching the ball into the end zone, regardless of who’s throwing it.
It is worth noting that Carlson is perfect on nine field goal attempts of shorter than 50 yards this year, and he’s missed both of his attempts from longer than that range. So if the Raiders aren’t able to advance it into the red zone, it’s no guarantee that he’ll hit his kicks. The two most likely outcomes are the Raiders being totally unable to move the ball, or Chicago’s defense allowing them to reliably finish drives, neither of which is a Carlson-friendly scenario.
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