Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props & Picks (11/19/23)
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
The Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) visit the Miami Dolphins (6-3) on Sunday (11/19/23) at 1 p.m. EST. The Dolphins are double-digit favorites at -13.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 46.5 points. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Raiders vs. Dolphins player prop bets.
Michael Mayer over 2.5 receptions (+125 at BetMGM)
There are tons of big-name players in this game on both teams. But our favorite player prop focuses on the Raiders’ rookie tight end whom they selected early in the second round (35th overall) of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Mayer got off to a slow start in his rookie season, catching just one pass in his first four games. But he has started getting more involved in the offense since then and has at least two catches in five of his last six games, including his first career touchdown last week against the Jets.
Mossed him ‼️
📺: #NYJvsLV on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/lfCP1NFAnO pic.twitter.com/q31apA1XZR— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2023
Mayer was considered a first-round talent and is an ascending player with a great matchup this week. The Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most receptions to opposing tight ends this season (5.78 per game) and have allowed at least three receptions to a tight end in five of their last six games.
The Raiders are likely to be trailing for most of this game which will lead to a high passing volume, and that should create enough targets for Mayer to catch at least three passes in this game. Given his recent performance and the matchup, the +125 odds on this bet represent a great value.
Josh Jacobs over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
This might seem counterintuitive considering we just talked about how this is going to be a pass-heavy game for the Raiders in an expected negative game script. However, Miami’s run defense is the most exploitable aspect of its defense, and the Raiders can’t afford to completely abandon the run, even when they’re playing from behind.
The Dolphins’ run defense is 26th in DVOA, 29th in EPA per play allowed, and 27th in success rate. They have allowed at least 62 rushing yards to a running back in three of their last four games.
Jacobs has at least 60 rushing yards in five of his last six games as the Raiders have been leaning much more heavily on him recently compared to early in the season. He has 20+ carries in four of his last five games and 25+ touches in five of his last six.
We don’t expect Jacobs to be very involved in the passing game this week considering the Dolphins allow the second-fewest receptions to opposing running backs this season (just 2.78 per game). That means most of Jacobs’ touches will come in the ground game, even in a negative game script.
Jacobs’ recent production has also coincided with rookie QB Aidan O’Connell taking over as the Raiders’ new starting QB. It’s no surprise that they’re looking to make life easier for their rookie signal caller by leaning on the ground game and a running back that led the league in rushing last season. Jacobs has started looking more like that guy recently, and that will continue this week.
Daniel Carlson over 1.5 FGM (+140 at BetMGM)
Who doesn’t love a good ole kicking prop? We certainly do, and we love Carlson to make at least two field goals in this game, especially at +140 odds. Carlson has made at least two field goals in four of his last five games and has at least three field goal attempts in five of his last six.
The Raiders are 23rd in the league in red-zone efficiency, converting just 50% of red-zone trips into touchdowns. That means more field goal opportunities for Carlson. Of course the flip side of that is the Dolphins’ red-zone defense, which is 29th in the league allowing touchdowns on 67.7% of opportunities. We have more faith in the Dolphins’ defense to turn that around than we do in the Raiders’ offense with O’Connell under center.
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