Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Sunday (11/05/23) at 1:00pm EST in Green Bay Wisconsin as a home game for the Packers. Get Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers predictions and best bets below as our best bet is the Rams going under their team total under.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet
It’s potentially a new face under center for the Los Angeles Rams as Matthew Stafford is currently listed as questionable and trending towards out for this Sunday’s contest against the Green Bay Packers. A massive blow for their offense as he got in a groove with his star receiver Cooper Kupp and emerging rookie sensation Puka Nacua. Should Stafford be ruled out, that means Brett Rypien would be the next man up as he looks to keep the Rams offense afloat.
While not all hope is lost as Rypien has been around for a few years, but the Rams future success looks bleak as he has had serious struggles with taking care of the ball. In his three years with the Broncos, Rypien has thrown for four touchdowns and eight interceptions while also fumbling the ball three times as well. Not exactly ideal against a Green Bay Packers defense who excels at collapsing the pocket. Green Bay currently ranks 12th in Pressure and sixth in Blitz Rate.
Expect a ramped-up pressure filled attack on Green Bay’s end as their best course of success is to rattle Rypien in the pocket. Especially with the Rams offensive line grading out as one of the worst pass protecting units in football per PFF as well as clocking in at 17th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Packers secondary has struggled defending the pass, making it vital that the Green Bay front seven can continue to push back the line and force Rypien into turnover worthy plays.
Should Rypien revert back to his old ways, the Rams may opt into the idea of abusing the run. This has been a strength for their offense, ranking sixth in Rush DVOA, fourth in Rush Success Rate, and fifth in Rush PPA. A potentially worrisome area as the Packers defense ranks well below average in the same metrics yet will get the added benefit of being able to stack the box in an attempt to stuff the run. Calling a heavy dose of the run plays in the unders favor as well, bleeding the clock while making minimal gains against a stacked box on the Packers end.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet: Rams TT u17.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
Oddsmakers originally had this as a tight contest before the injury to Matthew Stafford, opening the Rams as a -1 favorite. That number has since flipped as Stafford trends towards being out, now pegging the Packers as a -3 favorite. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the spread since reopening at 3, keeping the spread the same as of writing.
As for the total, points were expected to be scored at a sluggish pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 43.5. Since the Stafford injury news, bettors have hammered the under down to as low as 38.5. An expected line movement as the Rams offense will sorely miss Stafford’s passing ability and may revert to a one-dimensional offense.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Key Injuries
Plenty of big names are on the injury report for this contest as Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Aaron Jones, and Jaire Alexander are all listed as questionable.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Key Matchups
Can Jordan Love sustain drives down the field and take precious time off the clock for the under?
Jorda Love Vs. Rams Defense
It’s not just enough to slow down the Rams in order for them to hit their team total under, Jordan Love and company will also have to sustain drives down the field and avoid field flipping turnovers. That’s been a rough area for them as of late, now poised for a bounce back opportunity against the Rams defense.
Jordan Love with his 8th INT of the year. Yikes! 😬 pic.twitter.com/164OFyRHsC
— Jonathan Reyes (@InsideherJay) October 29, 2023
Defense has been optional for the Rams at this point of the season, especially through the air as their back end ranks 22nd in Def Pass DVOA, 23rd in Def Pass EPA, and 21st in Def Pass Success Rate. They generate little to no pressure at a low blitz rate, playing into Love’s favor as his struggles come from a collapsing pocket.