This Sunday (10/29/23), the Los Angeles Rams will head to Texas for a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys as both teams look to get their season back on track. Get Rams vs. Cowboys odds, picks, and predictions below as our best bet is under 45.5 points.
Los Angeles Rams vs Dalaas Cowboys Prediction
After an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, the Cowboys had one more opportunity to go into their bye week on a positive note, and that they did – but just barely. It took some classic Brandon Staley shenanigans and some of the worst football you’ll ever see Justin Herbert play, but the Cowboys defense reminded us once again that they are in fact still very good, despite a couple of recent hiccups.
Now, after the bye, Dallas is staring up in the standings at the 6-1 Eagles, and they have a lot of work left to do to be viewed as true contenders in a surprisingly crowded NFC. The defense, which currently ranks third in both DVOA and EPA, will of course always be at the heart of their success, but they’re going to need more from the offense.
Dallas’ runners have averaged less than 4 yards per rush, despite decent contributions from the offensive line, and the ground offense as a whole ranks 25th as per DVOA. Interestingly enough, they’re ninth in success rate, so it seems that they pick up halfway decent yardage on plenty of plays, but lack the explosive plays needed to break a game open. They’re not getting much help from the passing offense either, which averages just 7 yards per throw, as Dak Prescott has once again shown that he is not going to do much in terms of elevating an offense.
They’ll be going up against a Rams defense that limits success rate well, but succumbs to teams that are able to create big plays, definitely not a good matchup for the Cowboys. Offensively, Sean McVay’s bunch ranks top five in rushing offense EPA, DVOA, and success rate, but will be running up against a defensive unit that is top 10 in both EPA and DVOA, but 29th in success- another “bend but don’t break” situation. It seems that there will be opportunities for both offenses to move the ball, but it could be some slow going, especially as Dallas runs the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and the two teams rank 20th and 24th in terms of seconds per snap.
In terms of red-zone defense, both teams are about average, while on the other side of the field, LA is the league’s 10th-best team in terms of turning trips inside the 20 into touchdowns. But Dallas ranks 26th by the same metric. After stifling the Chargers, this Dallas defense should have no issue limiting the other tenants of SoFi Stadium, although this game will take place in Texas, but the Cowboys’ offense isn’t potent enough to exploit LA’s defensive weaknesses. With the half-point hook included, the under on a number of 45.5 is a relative no-brainer in this one.
Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction: Under 45.5
Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys Best Odds
The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites at home, or -275 on the moneyline, while the Rams are +220 to pull off the road upset. For that total of 45.5, you can grab -110 odds on either side.
Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys Key Injuries
Safety Russ Yeast is banged up for the Rams, and the Cowboys will still be without injured defensive stars Leighton Vander Esch and Trevon Diggs.
Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys Key Matchups
Establishing the run on the road is going to be key for the visiting Rams, while the Cowboys will need to win at the line of scrimmage on offense and protect Dak Prescott to survive this one.
Los Angeles Rams Rushing Offense vs. Dallas Cowboys Run Defense
We’ve already touched on that interesting trend of the Cowboys run defense struggling to limit success rate, but doing well in terms of per-snap value metrics, and if that plays out on Sunday, the Rams will be happy to keep moving the ball in a low-scoring grinder of a game, whether or not the plays are explosive. The right side of the Rams line, guard Kevin Dotson and tackle Rob Havenstein, has been outstanding in the run game, but the rest has been mediocre, and Kyren Williams has emerged as a solid runner this season.
While Micah Parsons is a transcendent talent, he hasn’t been the best run defender in the Dallas front seven. That would be DeMarcus Lawrence, whose average depth of tackle on rushing snaps is a ridiculous -1.0, and has yet to miss a tackle. Osa Odighizuwa has been a great anchor in the D-line interior, but the second level will be missing its heart and soul, as Leighton Vander Esch’s absence still looms large.
Los Angeles Rams Defensive Front vs. Dallas Cowboys Pass Blocking
Dak Prescott has been pretty solid under pressure this year, especially in terms of pass completion rate, but he also hasn’t taken too much heat this season. The Niners pressured him on 14 of his 27 snaps, by far the highest rate of the season, and the Chargers sacked him a season-high five times in what turned out to be another tough game for the Dallas offense. Tyron Smith’s return from injury is enormous, and although his play has been solid, he could be even better after getting healthier over the bye.
As for the Rams pass rush, Aaron Donald has been his usual, incredible self, with a pass rush win rate of 21.5% while playing on the interior, but that’s about it. Byron Young has three sacks off the edge, but hasn’t been too consistent. He and the rest of the unit will need to step up and make life hard for Prescott if the Rams are going to leave this one as winners.