After a pitcher’s duel in game three, despite Max Scherzer’s early exit, the Texas Rangers were able to pull out the win over the Arizona Diamondbacks to pull ahead 2-1 in the series and reclaim home field advantage for the rest of this World Series. Let’s dig into the odds for this pivotal clash, where my prediction is for over 9.5 runs scored.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
It’s safe to say that if you had known that Max Scherzer would have left game three after just three innings of work, you probably would have picked the Diamondbacks to win at home, but the Rangers bullpen did an excellent job to secure the win. A three run third inning was all Texas created on offense, but it was also all they needed as the pen gave up just a single run over six innings of work.
On offense, Corey Seager was once again the star with a two run blast that would have been enough to win the game all on its own, while Texas’s defenders flashed the leather more than once in an impressive display. The Arizona pitching effort was pretty solid as well, with just the one hiccup from Brandon Pfaadt, but at the plate, they were unable to make any headway against an array of Rangers arms.
As Texas has guaranteed a return home, Arizona will need to start banking wins before this series gets out of hand, so game four will be an absolutely massive one for the home team, while the road squad will look to take a commanding lead. In this inflection point of a game, both teams have some pretty questionable pitching options. The Rangers are throwing Andrew Heaney, not necessarily a World Series caliber arm, while the Diamondbacks will counter with Joe Mantiply, a reliever.
Mantiply could surely get Arizona off to a good start, but they’ll be looking for seven or more likely, eight innings of work from their bullpen. Paired with a Texas pen that tossed six innings in game three, this one could be a high-scoring affair, especially as both managers look to preserve at least some arms for a third game in three days.
Unfortunately, an injury to record-setting Rangers star Adolis García could be a blow to the over. We don’t know his status just yet, but if his oblique injury keeps him out of game four, it would be a huge loss; he was the ALCS MVP for Texas, and is, or was, positioned pretty well to win the same honor for this World Series.
García is a phenomenal talent with a real penchant for performing in the biggest moments, but this Texas offense still has plenty of juice without him. Similarly, the Arizona lineup isn’t quite as stacked, but like every playoff-caliber squad, they have every ability in the World to make things tough for Heaney.
It’s hard to know who will come out on top in a game that the sportsbooks and most advanced prediction systems see as essentially a dead heat, so let’s go a different direction and bet on offense, we’ll take the over despite the relatively high total. It’s a good spot to invest in offense after an anomalously strong pitching performance on both sides in game three, and there should be runs galore in this one.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Over 9.5 Runs (+100)
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Odds
This game is officially a pick ‘em! Both teams have -110 odds on the moneyline. That being said, a -1.5 run line is being offered for the Rangers, with +145 odds to hit, while the Diamondbacks are -175 to cover. For a total of 9.5, the over is +100 while the under is favored at -120.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Key Matchups
With a rough pitching situation in game four for both teams, it will be key to get off to a good start, so let’s see how each offense can ruin those plans and get scoring right away.
Andrew Heaney vs. True Outcome Hitters
Like many pitchers in today’s game, Heaney has some issues with both walks and home runs, as he allows 3.7 and 1.4 per nine innings of work, respectively. Advanced metrics back this up, as his barrel rate is a dismal 16th percentile. Of course, these are some of the biggest issues a pitcher can have, which is a big part of why I have the over hitting in my Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
Arizona was a pretty average team in both categories this regular season, but definitely has some threats in both departments. Alek Thomas and Gabriel Moreno have both exploded power-wise this postseason with four homers each after much lower production in the regular season, during which the team leader was Christian Walker with 33 long balls. Ketel Marte led the team with 71 walks, while Geraldo Perdomo, Walker, and NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll registered 64, 62, and 57 respectively.
Joe Mantiply vs. Power Hitters
Across a relatively small sample size this season, Mantiply also struggled with barrel rate, although it didn’t show up as drastically in his traditional numbers. Mantiply, usually a reliever, will be used as an opener rather than a traditional starter, so let’s focus on the power capabilities of just the first couple of bats for Texas
García is on the verge of history with eight postseason homers, after he smacked 39 in the regular season. Corey Seager hit 33 of his own, in just 119 games, and has an impressive five this postseason so far, as well as some impressive gap power en route to a .623 slugging percentage in the regular season, and an even better mark throughout these playoffs. Leadoff man Marcus Semien also hit 29 gopher balls this season, another bat who helped Texas finish third in the majors with 233 team home runs.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Starting Lineups
Rangers Starting Lineup
2B Marcus Semien R
SS Corey Seager L
LF Evan Carter L
RF Adolis García R
DH Mitch Garver R
C Jonah Heim S
1B Nathaniel Lowe L
3B Josh Jung R
CF Leody Taveras S
Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
RF Corbin Carroll L
2B Ketel Marte S
C Gabriel Moreno R
1B Christian Walker R
DH Tommy Pham R
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R
CF Alek Thomas L
3B Evan Longoria R
SS Geraldo Perdomo S
World Series Betting Promo Codes
Is Texas Sports Betting Legal?
As of the 2023 World Series, sports betting is not legal in Texas. For all updates regarding legal betting in the longhorn state, individuals can consult Lineups’ Texas sports betting page.