Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups for World Series Game 3 (10/30/2023)
The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks are all tied at 1-1 in the 2023 World Series, which shifts to Arizona for game 3 on Monday (10/30/23) at 8:03 p.m. ET. The betting odds have these teams as dead even in this game, with both clubs carrying -110 odds on the moneyline, while the over/under is set at 9 runs.
This article provides Rangers vs. Diamondbacks game 3 analysis, predictions and best bets including a recommendation to bet on the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks World Series Game 3 Prediction
Starting pitchers: RHP Max Scherzer (0-1, 9.45 ERA this postseason) vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt (0-0, 2.70 ERA)
It’s about time the Diamondbacks started getting the respect they have earned.
They have been the better team for 18 of the 20 innings in the World Series so far. If not for Corey Seager and Adolis García’s heroics in the 9th and 11th innings of game 1, respectively, then we’d be talking about a commanding 2-0 lead for Arizona.
Of course we can’t just discount those 2 massive home runs that swung game 1 – they show just what the Rangers are capable of. Both of these teams have shown already in this postseason how quickly a series can turn around regardless of what’s already happened.
Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Arizona has clearly been the better team after 2 games, and we like their chances to keep that going in their home ballpark tonight. Considering this game is a pick’em, they certainly represent the better value. It’s somewhat puzzling that they’re not slightly favored in this game, and the best explanation is the pitching matchup.
Max Scherzer is a future Hall of Famer and three-time Cy Young award winner who is pitching in his 3rd World Series. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie making just his 23rd career start and 5th start in the postseason. This is the most unpredictable pitching matchup of the series so far.
Despite his gaudy resume, Scherzer is not the better pitcher right now. He missed a little over a month with a muscle strain in his throwing shoulder and struggled mightily in his first 2 playoff starts in the ALCS. The Rangers are here despite him, not because of him.
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks would not be here without Pfaadt’s dazzling performance in the NLCS. The 25-year-old righty dominated in a must-win game 3, throwing 5-2/3 scoreless innings while allowing just 2 hits, no walks, and striking out a career-high 9 batters. He wasn’t quite as dominant in game 7 on the road, but still pitched 4 solid innings (2 earned, 7 Ks) and gave his team a chance to win.
Based on reputation alone, Scherzer is obviously the guy you would trust more in this situation, and on paper it’s one of the biggest pitching mismatches in recent World Series history. But based on recent performance, it’s reasonable to say that the matchup favors Arizona. Scherzer could certainly be getting healthier and could rise to his lofty expectations on this stage. Pfaadt could certainly become a rookie again and struggle to maintain his command with the pressure of the moment.
That’s why it’s so hard to know what to expect from both guys, but we tend to trust recent performance over historical precedent, so we’ll give the nod to the Diamondbacks to hand the Rangers their first road loss of the postseason. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3 Prediction: Diamondbacks win 5-4, Diamondbacks moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
Betting odds have this game as a pick’em as both teams are at -110 on the moneyline at most sportsbooks. The Rangers have occasionally been tiny favorites with -115 odds compared to Arizona’s -105.
The Rangers are favored against the spread, as they are laying -1.5 runs at +150 odds, while the Diamondbacks are getting +1.5 runs at -185 odds.
The over/under is set at 9 runs with identical -110 odds on both the over and on the under.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Rangers vs. Diamondbacks.
Max Scherzer vs. Christian Walker
Scherzer is the biggest wildcard in this game as we just don’t know what version of him to expect. His recent struggles are the biggest reason we picked the Diamondbacks’ moneyline in our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction, but if he can regain his dominant form then that would certainly swing things in the Rangers’ favor.
Walker is the biggest wildcard for the Snakes. After leading the team in home runs (33) and RBI (103) during the regular season, he is hitting just .167 in the postseason and has a higher OBP (.339) than SLG (.292) thanks to a team-high 12 walks. He notched a meaningless base hit late in game 2 which his teammates celebrated like it was a walk-off homer. It won’t be meaningless if he can carry that over into this game, because if his bat gets going then that would take the Diamondbacks’ offense to a whole new level.
Walker only has 3 career plate appearances against Scherzer, but he smashed one of them 449 feet out of the park – the fourth-longest homer Scherzer has ever allowed.
Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel go back-to-back! TIE GAME! pic.twitter.com/NxxaexZuoq
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 4, 2023
It’s unclear how far either starting pitcher will go in this game. Scherzer has only thrown 107 pitches total in his first 2 starts of the postseason and has only recorded 20 total outs. Pfaadt has terrible splits the third time through the order and is unlikely to face much more than 18 batters, though Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo could give him a longer leash if he’s pitching as well as he has in the last few starts.
Either way, that puts a lot more pressure on the bullpens to step up in this game. Both clubs should have all their best relief arms available after using none of them in the game 2 blowout and then having an off day yesterday. The only guy that is probably unavailable is the Rangers’ Martín Pérez, who threw 39 pitches in mop-up duty on Saturday.
The Rangers’ trio of Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and José Leclerc will handle the late-inning work for manager Bruce Bochy, while Arizona’s Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel will most likely handle the 7th and 8th innings before closer Paul Sewald. It will be important to see how Sewald performs tonight after blowing his first save of the postseason in game 1.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Starting Lineups (Projected)
Rangers Starting Lineup
2B Marcus Semien (R)
SS Corey Seager (L)
LF Evan Carter (L)
RF Adolis García (R)
DH Mitch Garver (R)
C Jonah Heim (S)
1B Nathaniel Lowe (L)
3B Josh Jung (R)
CF Leody Taveras (S)
Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
RF Corbin Carroll (L)
2B Ketel Marte (S)
C Gabriel Moreno (R)
1B Christian Walker (R)
DH Tommy Pham (R)
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)
CF Alek Thomas (L)
3B Evan Longoria (R)
SS Geraldo Perdomo (S)
World Series Betting Promo Codes
Is Texas Sports Betting Legal?
As of the 2023 World Series, sports betting is not legal in Texas. For all updates regarding legal betting in the longhorn state, individuals can consult Lineups’ Texas sports betting page.