This is officially the beginning of the end- the first elimination game of this World Series, as the Arizona Diamondbacks have no more margin for error. The Texas Rangers own a 3-1 lead, but they’ve been as close as a strike away from winning a championship and still haven’t secured one, so the pressure is still on for them. Let’s dig into the odds for this pivotal matchup, where my prediction is that the Diamondbacks will win and force the series back to Texas.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
If you had been told that the Diamondbacks would score the final six runs of game five, you probably would have thought that it would have been a win for them, but their impressive late flurry of offense was too little too late as they had already fallen behind by a score of 11-1. The bullpen game approach did not work, and while credit is absolutely due to Ryne Nelson for chewing up 5.1 innings of one-run ball after only having recorded three outs previously this postseason, the damage was already done by the time he had his chance to toe the slab.
Interestingly enough, due to Nelson’s heroics, the Rangers actually used more bullpen arms than the Diamondbacks despite getting over five innings of work from starter Andrew Heaney- a remarkable six relievers combined to finish the job, and while none threw for more than an inning, it’s hard to know who will be available on Wednesday. Bullpen star José Leclerc’s availability will be particularly interesting to keep an eye on, as he chipped in 16 pitches on Monday as well as 10 to record the final out of game four.
Due to the workload that has been placed on the bullpens over the past couple of days, the performance of starting pitchers is going to be absolutely vital in finding a winner in game five. Both teams are arguably tossing their staff ace, Nathan Eovaldi for Texas and Zac Gallen for Arizona, and both workhorses will be likely asked to put in a significant shift in order to protect a taxed bullpen.
The explosion of offense was an incredibly good sign for Texas, as they were without the best hitter of this postseason, Adolis García, who is going to miss the rest of the series with an injury. He was the hero in game one with a walk off home run, and has been assaulting both opposing pitching staffs and the record books this postseason with eight homers and 22 RBI, so it was great to see the Rangers’ offense producing runs without him- they’ll need to get the job done without him just one more time to get on top of the baseball World.
With a depleted bullpen, they might have to wait one more game. In the regular season, Eovaldi’s last effort of more than six innings since the first day of July, and could definitely run into some trouble with a third trip through the lineup. He’s been pushing it a bit farther in the postseason, but after not having done so regularly since around June, he could conceivably struggle as the wear and tear of October catches up to him. The Diamondbacks will throw the kitchen sink at this one, looking to avoid the embarrassment of dropping all three games at home and watching the Rangers celebrate on their field.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Diamondbacks ML (-110)
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Odds
This game is a true pick ‘em, with -110 odds for both sides. If you want, you can get a spread of -1.5 for the Rangers at +150 odds, or bet on the Diamondbacks at -185 to cover. For a total of 8.5 runs, the over is -115 and the under is -105.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Key Matchups
These two starters squared off in an epic game one, and both had their fair share of struggles; let’s see how things might go this time around.
Zac Gallen vs. Crafty Hitters
Gallen usually struggles with hard hit rate while excelling in terms of walking batters, but in game one, he had a relatively tough time with both. He allowed four hits, which isn’t particularly uncharacteristic, but four walks in just five innings of work is quite the anomaly for him. It’s worth noting that García did much of the damage, but Texas still has plenty of bats that can give him some trouble.
Superstar shortstop Corey Seager has racked up an outrageous 14 walks this postseason, much of which was accumulated prior to this World Series, but he has been on base six times in the first four games against Arizona- with his only two walks coming against Gallen. Outfielders Leody Taveras and Evan Carter have walked 10 times apiece this October, while Carter’s 17 hits place him right behind Seager’s 19. Still, given the absence of his achilles heel from game one, García, I believe in Gallen enough to predict his Diamondbacks to win in my Rangers vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Power Hitters
Eovaldi had a much worse game one than Gallen, as he was unable to work through the fifth inning, and gave up five earned runs on six hits. Those hits included a home run, an RBI triple and an RBI double, so the big swings are what really hurt the New Jersey native in his first World Series start.
The culprits of those big swings in game one were Tommy Pham, Corbin Carroll, and and Ketel Marte. The latter two each smacked 25 homers in the regular season, as Marte slugged .485 and Carroll .506, while Pham has only just reached their level of production in the playoffs. Christian Walker hasn’t had a great postseason, but his team-high 33 homers and 36 doubles are evidence of a power swing that can show itself at any time.
Rangers Vs. Diamondbacks Starting Lineups
Rangers Starting Lineup
2B Marcus Semien R
SS Corey Seager L
LF Evan Carter L
RF Adolis García R
DH Mitch Garver R
C Jonah Heim S
1B Nathaniel Lowe L
3B Josh Jung R
CF Leody Taveras S
Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
RF Corbin Carroll L
2B Ketel Marte S
C Gabriel Moreno R
1B Christian Walker R
DH Tommy Pham R
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R
CF Alek Thomas L
3B Evan Longoria R
SS Geraldo Perdomo S
World Series Betting Promo Codes
Is Texas Sports Betting Legal?
As of the 2023 World Series, sports betting is not legal in Texas. For all updates regarding legal betting in the longhorn state, individuals can consult Lineups’ Texas sports betting page.