Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Predictions, Starting Lineups (11/2/23)
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The Toronto Raptors (2-3) face the Philadelphia 76ers (2-1) this Thursday (11/2/23). Get Raptors vs. 76ers moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchup below.
Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction
Philadelphia’s bench is currently an unknown commodity due to the James Harden trade. I am subsequently targeting Raptors +2.5 in the first quarter to essentially isolate this matchup to mostly the starters.
Toronto has outscored opponents by 16.4 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter because of their excellent starting lineup. Across 24 minutes (a small sample), the Schroder-Anunoby-Barnes-Siakam-Poeltl lineup has prevailed by 41.1 points per 100 possessions (via NBA.com).
Philadelphia owns the second best transition points per possession and achieves it at the eighth highest frequency. However, Toronto’s lengthy defense forces teams to play in the half-court; they are holding opponents to the fourth lowest transition frequency. Philadelphia’s offense will take a hit in efficiency as a result.
The 76ers run the pick-and-roll at the lowest frequency and instead opt for dribble-handoffs and post ups. Toronto’s elite screen navigators can reduce their shot quality, and they have the size to bang with Embiid in the paint. Meanwhile, OG Anunoby owns the defensive chops to at least harass Tyrese Maxey and somewhat slow him down, while Dennis Schroder can also be a disruptive pest at the point-of-attack. Overall, Toronto’s starting lineup should defend Philadelphia well and limit their output.
On the other end, the Raptors are ninth in pace adjusted open plus wide open three-point attempts because Schroder, Barnes, and Siakam can all pass at a relatively high-level. They can take advantage of a 76ers defense that is often late on closeouts. Toronto’s elite transition offense will also scorch a Philadelphia defense that can struggle to get back. Factor in their isolation firepower, and Toronto’s starting lineup can match or win their first quarter minutes.
Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers Prediction: 1st Quarter Raptors +2.5
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Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers Best Odds
The 76ers are favored by a massive eight points here. For Toronto’s +265 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they must win this matchup about 27% of the time. The 215 total is extremely low due to the projected sluggish pace.
Toronto Raptors Starting Lineup
PG: Dennis Schroder
SG: OG Anunoby
SF: Scottie Barnes
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Jakob Poeltl
Philadelphia 76ers Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Maxey
SG: De’Anthony Melton
SF: Kelly Oubre Jr
PF: Tobias Harris
C: Joel Embiid
Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers Injuries
Christian Koloko and Otto Porter Jr are out for Toronto, while Precious Achiuwa is a game time decision. On the other side, new acquisition Nic Batum is out.
Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers Key Matchups
Free Throws
Philadelphia leads the NBA in drive free throw attempts per drive field goal attempt, and Joel Embiid remains one of the best at getting to the charity stripe. The 76ers are shooting 80.9 percent from the line, which means a pair of free throws holds 1.618 expected points per possession. That’s equivalent to a 53.9 3PT%. Toronto has to defend without fouling here and force Philadelphia to make their shots. Otherwise, the 76ers will rack up easy points.
