Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs: Predictions, Starting Lineups (11/5/23)

The Toronto Raptors (2-4) travel to face the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) this Sunday (11/5/23). Get Raptors vs. Spurs moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchup below.

Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction

Devin Vassell’s injury is a massive blow to San Antonio’s offense. He’s averaging 19.4 points and 2.2 assists while shooting 40.7 percent from three on over five attempts per game. The rising star paces San Antonio in pick-and-roll ball handler possessions, where he owns an excellent 0.96 points per possession.

The Spurs lack high-level playmakers, so Vassell’s on-ball creation will be sorely missed. Outside of Tre Jones, they don’t roster reliable, careful ball handlers that can consistently orchestrate the half-court offense from the top of the key. This deficiency is especially worrisome against a lengthy, disruptive Raptors defense that is holding opponents to the fourth lowest pick-and-roll ball handler points per possession. Their ferocious on-ball pressure and adept screen navigation will force San Antonio’s young squad into committing turnovers at an alarming rate.

Keldon Johnson’s scoring likely takes a hit due to OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes’ defense; the duo can suffocate opponents with their length. San Antonio desperately needs a big offensive game from Johnson with Vassell out, so this individual matchup doesn’t bode well for the Spurs.

On the other end, Toronto owns the most efficient transition offense in the NBA, while San Antonio is allowing the sixth largest opponent transition points per possession. Transition opportunities inherently provide a massive boost to offensive efficiency, so Toronto can rack up easy points here.

Finally, the Spurs have surrendered the third most pace adjusted wide open three-point attempts. The Raptors are an average outside shooting team (18th in three-point attempt rate; 17th in 3PT%), but they have the personnel to punish San Antonio from deep. Schroder, Anunoby, Trent Jr, and Dick should rain down threes.

Overall, the rebuilding Spurs have surprised to start the season, but facing Toronto sans Devin Vassell is an undesirable spot for them. Back the Raptors in this matchup.

Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Raptors -3 & moneyline

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Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs Best Odds

The visiting Toronto Raptors are three-point favorites with a decent moneyline. For San Antonio’s +130 moneyline to have a positive expected value, they need to win this game about 43% of the time. It’s worth noting that Toronto was 4-13 as an away favorite last season, although Dennis Schroder and an improved Scottie Barnes have them looking sharper.

Toronto Raptors Starting Lineup

PG: Dennis Schroder
SG: OG Anunoby
SF: Scottie Barnes
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Jakob Poeltl

San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup

PG: Tre Jones
SG: Jeremy Sochan
SF: Keldon Johnson
PF: Victor Wembanyama
C: Zach Collins

Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs Injuries

Rising star Devin Vassell (19.4 PPG) will miss this contest due to an injury suffered against Phoenix. For Toronto, backup center Christian Koloko is out, while Precious Achiuwa is doubtful.

Toronto Raptors vs. San Antonio Spurs Key Matchups

Spurs Bench

With Tre Jones entering the starting lineup, the bench loses its orchestrator. Doug McDermott, Cedi Osman, and Malaki Branham will all subsequently suffer because they frequently depend on Jones’ table-setting. The second unit’s offense likely devolves into a chaotic mess riddled with poor shot quality, so the Raptors should increase their lead when the starters sit.

Spurs 3PT Shooting

With Devin Vassell out, San Antonio’s three-point shooting takes a serious hit. He ranked 21st across the NBA in the metric Off-Ball Gravity per Basketball Index. A shrunken court against a team that constantly disrupts passing lanes isn’t a recipe for success, so look for the Spurs’ offense to be somewhat sluggish and messy in this matchup.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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