Get Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars player prop picks & odds for the (12/17/23) matchup.
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks
Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars kicks off this Sunday at 8:20pm EST in Jacksonville Florida as a home game for the Jaguars. The Ravens are currently a -3 favorite and -168 on the moneyline while the total is set at 42.5. Expect Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers to continue to thrive while a hobbled Trevor Lawrence is held in check, all giving value as player props for this Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars matchup.
Trevor Lawrence Under 230.5 Passing Yards
When Trevor Lawrence went down with an injury two weeks ago, it was largely believed that he would miss a few weeks due to his high ankle sprain. With their playoff and division hopes clinging to life, Lawrence did the unthinkable and decided to give it a go. He looked clearly hampered by his injury, resorting to check downs and dump offs as his injury negated his pocket maneuverability.
While that may have worked against a gassed Browns defense in a high scoring losing effort, the Ravens defense poses as a far tougher challenge. The Ravens defense as a whole rank second overall in Def DVOA, playing as one of the best units in the league. A brunt of their success goes directly against this prop as the Ravens rank second in Def Pass DVOA, second in Def Pass EPA, and third in Def Pass Success Rate.
Not only do the Ravens excel in coverage, but their front four is the best defensive front in the league in terms of getting to the quarterback. They rank first in Def Adjusted Sack Rate, being more than capable of taking advantage of a hobbled Trevor Lawrence who is still clearly dealing with an injury. Expect Lawrence to revert to more checkdowns, draining the clock with minimal gains.
Trevor Lawrence Under 32.5 Longest Completion
With Trevor Lawrence reverting to more check downs and dump offs due to his injury, that lessens the chance of this prop being burned due to having to rack up more yards after the catch. Especially since it comes against an elite Ravens coverage unit, a back end that flies to the ball and limits gains down the field.
As noted in the previous prop as well, Trevor Lawrence will also find himself with less time to let plays develop as the Ravens front four excels at collapsing the pocket. The Jags offensive line has struggled at times throughout the season due to injury, now potentially being down two starting linemen as Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland are currently listed as questionable.
Lamar Jackson Over 18.5 Pass Completions
Lamar Jackson is starting to show serious signs of progression as a lethal passer under Todd Monken’s system, as well as finally being surrounded by an actual productive group of pass catchers. Even with the injury to star tight end Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely has shown to be able to salvage some of the loss of production by playing as a pure pass catching tight end.
LAMAR JACKSON. CLUTCH 😱
— PFF (@PFF) December 10, 2023
The pass attack should face minimal resistance with what Monken wants them to do, running a passing offense that thrives in Pass Success Rate. They have done it at an above average rate so far this season, ranking 10th in Pass Success Rate. That means the Ravens are routinely converting on later downs with the pass, as well as cutting the distance to gain in half on early downs.
Better yet, defending the short throw has been an issue for the Jags elite defense. While they excel at most metrics as a top-10 unit per Def DVOA, the Jags rank a shockingly low 17th in Def Pass Success Rate. That means there are gaps in coverage near the goal line, giving Lamar high quality opportunities to complete the pass which plays directly towards this prop.
Zay Flowers Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
One of the reasons Lamar has been able to take a step forward in the pass game is because of his rookie Zay Flowers. Flowers has been the perfect complement to what they try to do in Monken’s system, using his quick speed to burn corners off the line.
Not only is he Lamar’s favorite short throw target, but Flowers has also been stretching the field as a deep field threat. With the Jags having to respect their ground game and anchor their linebackers against Lamar, Flowers should find himself with more open field to work with and rack up sizable yards after the catch.