Rays vs. Mariners: Predictions, Odds, Best Bet, Starting Lineups (6/30/23)

Rays vs. Mariners Prediction

Rays vs. Mariners Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs

The Mariners have dropped three straight series heading into this game, and their job gets considerably harder this weekend against a 56-28 Rays team with their ace, Shane McClanahan on the mound. McClanahan has the league’s lowest ERA (2.23) and most wins (11).

Seattle’s bats have been all over the place in June. Jarred Kelenic – once this team’s best hitter – has a .167 average in June and in the last 30 days, has struck out 36 times, the second-most of anyone over that time period. Meanwhile Teoscar Hernandez has done well in June with a .289 batting average and six home runs while Cal Raleigh has a .268/.286/.415 slash line over the last 15 days, which includes two home runs and four RBIs. But as a whole, they have let teams back into games and faltered at clutch moments which is what cost them a result in extra innings three different times this month.

McClanahan was supposed to make the start on Wednesday, however needed an extra few days due to “mid-back tightness.” Rays manager Kevin Cash called this “precautionary,” according to ESPN.

This Mariners offense has a .188/.257/.219 slash line against McClanahan so they may be able to benefit if McClanahan is not at his best. He has a solid bullpen to back him up otherwise, which has a 3.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Offensively for Tampa Bay, they’ve got talent sprinkled up and down the lineup. Yandy Diaz leads this team with a .318 batting average (fourth-best) and is joined by Randy Arozarena (.286) and Wander Franco (.285) in the league’s top 25 batting averages. Jose Siri leads the team with 15 home runs. The Rays have the third-best team on-base percentage in the majors (.337).

They’ll be facing Bryce Miller, who forfeits a .186 batting average against right-handed batters like Diaz and Arozarena. Miller has a 3.03 ERA at home but has struggled in his two outings in June, having tallied a 5.89 ERA, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares against the top team in baseball.

The Rays have more starpower here especially with their ace on the mound who has held 14 of 16 opponents to two or fewer runs this year.

Rays vs. Mariners Odds

The Mariners enter as home underdogs in this matchup against the Rays. If you are interested in betting the run line, you can get the Mariners +1.5 at -180 or the Rays -1.5 at +158. The over/under is 7.5 runs.

Here are some trends to consider when betting on this game:

  • Tampa Bay is 13-16 against the run line as the away favorite
  • Tampa Bay is 17-10 at hitting the under as the away favorite
  • Seattle is 15-11 at hitting the over as the underdog
  • Seattle is 17-10 against the run line as the underdog

Rays vs. Mariners Key Matchup

Let’s take a look at the key matchup that could decide Rays vs. Mariners.

McClanahan vs. Righty bats

McClanaham has held all right-handed batters this year to a .191/.265/.356 line. Conversely, the Mariners have a .241/.302/.388 slash line against left-handed pitchers like McClanahan and a few starters do significantly better against a southpaw.

Ty France leads the team against lefty pitchers, batting .342 with a .901 OPS and 15 RBIs. He also does significantly better at home than on the road, boasting a .288/.368/.477 slash line and a .250 average against McClanahan in his career. Teoscar Hernandez also rakes against left-handed pitchers – he has a .278/.287/.553 line with six home runs this year. Eugenio Suarez also does a bit better: .254/.360/.365.

Overall though, the Mariners have a .188/.257/.219 line against this ace. Though McClanahan has the edge here, I think the Mariners have potential to get the bat swinging a bit.

Rays vs. Mariners Starting Lineups

Rays Starting Lineup

1B Yandy Diaz R
SS Wander Franco B
RF Luke Raley L
LF Randy Arozarena R
3B Isaac Paredes R
DH Josh Lowe L
CF Jose Siri R
2B Taylor Walls B
C Christian Bethancourt R

Mariners Starting Lineup

SS J. Crawford L
CF J. Rodriguez R
1B T. France R
RF T. Hernandez R
3B E. Suarez R
DH Tom Murphy R

C C. Raleigh S
LF J. Kelenic L
2B J. Caballero R

Mia Fowler is a graduate of Chapman University where she studied business marketing and journalism and played on the women’s soccer team. Following her 16-year journey with soccer, she started writing for Lineups.com. She specifically enjoys analysis of the NFL.

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