This year’s Copa del Rey final will feature a true David vs. Goliath battle, as underdogs Osasuna will take on the biggest club in World sports, Real Madrid. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for this silverware-deciding matchup in Seville.
Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Odds
Unsurprisingly, Madrid are serious favorites with -275 odds to win in regulation, compared to +700 for Osasuna and +450 for the draw. For a goalscoring total of 2.5, the over is -160 while the under is +130.
Real Madrid vs. Osasuna Prediction & Pick
This is the very definition of a Cinderella story for Osasuna. As far as silverware, they’re sitting on 11 trophies from winning the second and third divisions, but nothing in terms of cups, La Liga, or Europe. The closest they’ve come was the final of this competition in 2005, where they lost in an overtime heartbreaker to Real Betis.
This is a bit of an unlikely run for Real Madrid too, in a different way and on a different scale of course. Firstly, Osasuna have largely benefitted from favorable draws, as well as surely a couple of upsets.
Conversely, Madrid have gotten the tougher bracket by a good deal, as they’ve had to fight past fifth-place Villarreal, crosstown rivals and current league runners-up Atletico, and league leaders Barca (in a two-legged semifinal).
Then of course there are Madrid’s bizarre challenges in the past decade of this competition; they haven’t won it since the 2014 edition, despite the fact that they’ve won each of La Liga and the UCL several times in that window.
Just as Osasuna will be driven to grab their first major trophy, and glean a major success despite what is currently a 10th-place league campaign, Madrid will want to exorcize their demons and earn domestic silverware amidst what has become a lost La Liga season.
This is a tough one to bet, because Madrid are the right side to back, but of course -275 is no sort of value to bet on its own. I like the under, however, things are rarely simple for Madrid in this competition, and I could see Osasuna sitting back and making it tough for them to break through, but also not putting one in at the other end as they are 18th in goalscoring in La Liga.
Then of course there’s big match Benzema, who already has four goals in this competition and should be adding another, so I’m a fan of his goalscorer prop. Parlaying this one with the Madrid moneyline is a good way to capture value from minus-odds wagers that should correlate well to one another.
Picks: Benzema Anytime Goalscorer + Madrid ML SGP (-125), u2.5 goals +130
Madrid have easily been the highest-scoring squad in Spain this season, while Osasuna are extremely offensively challenged. That being said, Los Blancos defense has had some lapses, while that part of the pitch is a relative strength for the underdogs. Let’s dig into how these dynamics could play out on the pitch this Saturday.
Osasuna Attack vs. Madrid Defense
While Osasuna haven’t been able to score too many goals in league competition- just 29 in 33 matches- they do have the leading goalscorer in this year’s Copa del Rey, Spanish veteran forward Kike Garcia. Interestingly, he’s been far from the team’s top contributor in the league, with just two goals in 32 appearances, granted only 7 of which have been starts.
The team’s overall top scorer is Argentine Ezequiel Ávila, who slots in at either wing or up top and has knocked in 8 goals, all but one of which have come in league play. The team’s leading assister is left winger Kike Barja who has contributed 7 assists, 5 of which were in La Liga.
Madrid’s defense has not really been the highlight of the team, but is definitely still a very talented group. Éder Militao has been the literal as well as figurative centerpiece of the defense this year, as he plays in the middle and has also been the biggest star.
I should say the biggest outfield star, as goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is still one of the best in the business, if not the best, and is always in tip top form for a big match like this one. The fullback situation is a bit dynamic- Dani Carvajal is usually there and could be joined by either veteran Nacho or versatile youngster Camavinga- but you can bet that the duo Carlo Ancelotti picks will be up to the task.
Madrid Attack vs. Osasuna Defense
With this group, there’s more or less two men to talk about, and you know the names. One is Karim Benzema, the Ballon D’Or winner from last season. He’s not putting up the same record-breaking numbers, but with 28 goals scored in all competitions, and an average of almost 1 goal or assist per 90 minutes, he’s still playing at a high level, especially in big matches.
He’s flanked by Vinicius Junior, the brazilian winger who is increasingly a star in his own right. Alongside 19 goals, he leads the team with a stunning total 18 assists across competitions this year. Rodrygo has also been solid with 13 goals and 10 assists, as he’s graduated from bench star to frequent starter, but he’s not on the same level as his star teammates.
The Osasuna defense, which is allowing just more than a goal per match in league play, is led by team Captain and centre-back David Garcia. The Spaniard has been the team’s highest-rated outfield defender, as per FotMob, and is expected to shake off a recent knock and be ready to go for this, what he has indicated might be the biggest match he ever plays.
He also considers Osasuna, incredibly, to have an advantage at goalkeeper. I’m not sure I’d go that far with Courtois on the other side, but Sergio Herrera is a serious shot-stopper in the prime of his career, and will not be easy to get a shot past. He’s going to have to have the game of his life and then some if he wants to help his team lift an unprecedented trophy.