Predictions for Rays vs. Royals: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 4

Thursday’s contest between the Kansas City Royals (48-40) and Tampa Bay Rays (43-43) going head-to-head at Kauffman Stadium has a projected final score of 5-4 (according to our computer prediction) in favor of the Royals, who is listed as a slight favorite by our model. The game will start at 8:10 PM ET on July 4.

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Rays vs. Royals Matchup Info

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Rays vs. Royals Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Royals 5, Rays 4
  • Total Prediction: Under 9 runs

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Rays vs. Royals Betting Lines

Rays vs Royals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Rays -112 -108 9 +100 -120

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Rays Betting Insights

  • Tampa Bay has been victorious in 26, or 55.3%, of the 47 contests it has been chosen as the favorite in this season.
  • This season, the Rays have been victorious 26 times in 47 chances when named as a favorite of at least -112 or shorter on the moneyline.
  • Contests involving Tampa Bay have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 42 of 86 chances this season.
  • The Rays were the moneyline favorite in six of their past 15 games, and they went 4-2 in those matchups.
  • In its past 15 matchups, Tampa Bay and its opponents combined to go over the run total six times (all 15 of the games had set totals).

Royals Betting Insights

  • Kansas City has gone 24-27 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 47.1% of those games).
  • The Royals have a 22-26 record (winning 45.8% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of -108 or longer.
  • Kansas City has combined with opponents to hit the over on the total 36 times this season for a 36-49-3 record against the over/under.
  • In six games over their past 15 matchups when set as underdogs by bookmakers, the Royals had a record of 2-4.
  • In its past 15 games with a total, Kansas City and its opponents have failed to hit the over 12 times.

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Rays vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

Rays’ Starting Pitcher: Zach Eflin

  • The 30-year-old has pitched in 15 games this season with a 3.92 ERA and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings with a batting average against of .259.
  • Zach Eflin’s team is 5-5 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Eflin’s team is 9-6 when he starts this season.
  • Games started by Eflin have a 6-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Royals’ Starting Pitcher: Alec Marsh

  • The 26-year-old has put up an ERA of 4.19, with 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 15 games this season. Opposing hitters have a .238 batting average against him.
  • The Royals are 6-3 in Marsh’s nine starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Marsh’s team has won 10 of his 15 starts.
  • Alec Marsh has had 15 starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and eight of those games hit the over.

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Rays’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 43-43
Home 23-25
Road 20-18
One-Run Games 16-7
Scoring 5+ Runs 26-6

Royals’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 48-40
Home 31-17
Road 17-23
One-Run Games 13-12
Scoring 5+ Runs 27-11

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