Rutgers vs. Indiana: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/13/21)

Rutgers vs. Indiana Betting Odds

An ugly Big Ten battle will commence at high noon this Saturday, as the Scarlet Knights will travel to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers.

Rutgers sports a 4-5 record while Indiana is 2-7, both teams are scoring about 20 points per game, and both are allowing more than 25. It’s been a brutal season for both of these teams.

However, Indiana is somehow laying 6.5 points in this conference matchup. I find that ridiculous, so let’s talk about why.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Odds

Rutgers started out hot but have been pathetic since. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 straight up and against the spread (ATS) in their last five games, including a 52-3 demolition at the hands of Graham Mertz and Wisconsin last week.

The stats are all bad. Rutgers is averaging just 4.6 yards per play while allowing 6.2, and quarterback Noah Vedral is throwing for less than 200 yards per game with a 7:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Rutgers is at least competitive on the defensive end, ranking inside the top 50 FBS teams in Defensive Pass Success Rate and Defensive Rush Success Rate. However, the team doesn’t always keep everything in front of them, ranking 115th in preventing Big Plays.

Meanwhile, there’s zero explosiveness on the offensive side. The Scarlet Knights rank 129th in Big Plays this season, ahead of only Mertz and the Badgers.

Hopefully, Greg Schiano can get this team to bounce back down the stretch of the Big Ten season.

Indiana Hoosiers Odds

A lot of the same issues that plague Rutgers affect Indiana as well. A lack of explosiveness, an underwhelming defense, and a poor quarterback.

The only difference: It’s been a lot worse for the Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers rank 117th in scoring offense (20.3 points per game) and 105th in scoring defense (31.3 points per game allowed). They rank 116th in Big Plays and 115th in Offensive Success Rate behind a quarterback that’s thrown seven interceptions to just four touchdowns.

Michael Penix Jr. was the big-name last season, but that was nothing but smoke and mirrors. Penix has been nothing but disastrous this season, completing just 53% of his passes for 4.3 adjusted yards per attempt (per Sports Reference).

Luckily, he’s out. So how much worse can it get for the Hoosiers?

Well, their backup Jack Tuttle is completing fewer of his passes (51.9%) for lower adjusted yards per attempt (3.9). Then he got hurt, and Donaven McCulley came in to complete just 45% of his passes.

It’s been an unmitigated disaster for Indiana football this season, and their 2-7 record and 2-7 ATS record attest to that.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Rutgers +6.5 (-110 at Bet365)

Unless this line is a trap, consider it free money.

Rutgers is bad, but Indiana is so much worse. I expected this game to open at a pick, with the Hoosiers being max three-point favorites.

I’ll happily take the points in what should be a gross, low-scoring affair. 6.5 points is a lot for a total as low as 43.5.

Moreover, the trends back up the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is 3-1 ATS in road games this season while Indiana is 1-3 ATS at home.

Sharp money is hitting Rutgers, and I’m expecting this line to drop as we approach Saturday. However, I really believe in Rutgers for this game, and I feel comfortable playing the Hoosiers down to +3.5.