Rutgers vs. Michigan: Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions (9/25/21)

Rutgers vs. Michigan Betting Odds

Both Rutgers and Michigan enter Big Ten play 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Greg Schiano and Jim Harbaugh are both looking for big seasons, considering both programs have been questionable over the past few years and have created high expectations after non-conference play.

However, despite both teams averaging over 40 points per game while allowing just 11, the Wolverines are laying over 20 points in this matchup. That may be due to Michigan being 6-1 against Rutgers over their past seven meetings.

So, do the Wolverines deserve to be this big of favorites? Or will Rutgers shock the world Saturday at Noon?

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Odds

How has Rutgers gotten to this point?

By a dominant pass defense. Through three games, Rutgers ranks third in the country in Defensive Pass Success Rate while holding opposing quarterbacks to under 50% completion. Temple and Syracuse were both held well under 200 passing yards, and Temple’s D’Wan Mathis completed just 8 of his 24 attempts.

They haven’t done anything special on offense. They complete a high percentage of their passes, and they run for 150 yards per game while getting stuffed at the lowest rate in the nation. However, they’re averaging just 3.5 YPC in the process, and they rank just 40th in Offensive Success Rate.

The good news is that they’ve controlled the ball. They’re averaging 10 more plays per game than their opponents and haven’t turned the ball over once. Fifth-year Senior quarterback Noah Vedral has thrown four touchdowns and no picks so far this season.

That’s important when you consider how disruptive the Rutgers defense can be. They ranked 18th in Havoc in 2020 and currently rank 11th in that stat in the young 2021 season. This team forces turnovers and winning the turnover battle can compensate for other mistakes.

The most important part of this game will be the Rutgers front seven. They rank inside the top 30 in Defensive Rush Success Rate, but they’re allowing 115 rush yards per game and have yet to face a ground attack of this caliber.

Michigan Wolverines Odds

The Michigan run game is practically unstoppable.

Through three weeks, the Wolverines have rushed for 350 yards per game at a whopping 7.1 yards per carry. They rank inside the top-20 in Rush Success Rate and Rush Explosiveness, and they rank third in points per game (47).

That starts up front, where the Michigan offensive line returned four of five starters from last season. However, we must zero in on the backfield, which is the most talented in the nation.

Hassan Haskins has taken his 49 carries for 281 yards and four touchdowns, good for an excellent 5.7 YPC.

But Blake Corum has been incredible. He’s rushed for over 400 yards at 7.7 YPC while adding six receptions and 46 receiving yards. He’s versatile and can shed tacklers, but he’s a sprinter first and foremost:

Every time @UmichFootball has had the ball, it's scored a TD.@blake_corum just raced 51 yards to make it 42-3. 🏃💨 pic.twitter.com/8c1pmFeQ1D

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 18, 2021

Unfortunately, we haven’t seen much of the passing game yet, or how it might develop without WR Ronnie Bell, who’s out for the season due to injury. The Wolverines rush at the third-highest rate in the nation (74.6%), and as a result, McNamara has only had 37 attempts through three games.

However, he’s done well with his opportunities. He’s tossed for 370 yards at over 10 yards per attempt, and he’s recorded three touchdown passes with no turnovers. Hopefully, the Michigan offense will run their way to a Big Ten Championship, but they should be confident if they must rely on the pass.

Pick & Prediction

I think Michigan smokes Rutgers in this game.

The Wolverines cannot be stopped on the ground. They are going to run around, over, and through the Rutgers front seven. There’s no way for Schiano to scheme against that.

The strength of the Rutgers defense is the secondary, but if they are forced to stack the box, that significantly weakens the one area where they have a mismatch. McNamara will make simple, hot reads against man-to-man coverage when needed, and Corum will rush for six YPC the rest of the time.

Schiano takes his first ATS loss of the season Saturday, and Harbaugh will continue to make his boosters happy.